Immigration and US Shelter Prices: The Role of Geographical and Immigrant Heterogeneity Staff Working Paper 2024-40 James Cabral, Walter Steingress The arrival of immigrants increases demand for housing and puts upward pressure on shelter prices. Using instrumental variables based on the ancestry composition of residents in US counties, we estimate the causal impact of immigration on local shelter prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Housing, Inflation and prices, International topics, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): J, J6, J61, R, R2, R23, R3, R31
Unpacking Moving: A Quantitative Spatial Equilibrium Model with Wealth Staff Working Paper 2023-34 Elisa Giannone, Qi Li, Nuno Paixão, Xinle Pang We propose a model to understand low observed migration rates by considering the interaction between location and wealth decisions. We look at different policies and find that temporary moving vouchers only slightly increase welfare, while lower housing regulations can decrease the welfare gap by lowering house prices nationwide. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Housing, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): G, G5, G51, R, R1, R12, R13, R2, R3, R31, R5, R52
House Price Responses to Monetary Policy Surprises: Evidence from the U.S. Listings Data Staff Working Paper 2022-39 Denis Gorea, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Marianna Kudlyak Existing literature documents that house prices respond to monetary policy surprises with a significant delay, taking years to reach their peak response. We present new evidence of a much faster response. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Housing, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, R, R2, R21, R3, R31
Housing demand in Canada: A novel approach to classifying mortgaged homebuyers Staff Analytical Note 2022-1 Mikael Khan, Yang Xu We introduce a novel approach to categorize mortgaged homebuyers into first-time homebuyers, repeat homebuyers and investors. We show how these groups contribute to activity in Canadian housing markets, and we analyze the differences in their demographic and financial characteristics. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing JEL Code(s): R, R2, R21, R3, R31
Canadian housing supply elasticities Staff Analytical Note 2021-21 Nuno Paixão We explain how housing supply elasticities for Canadian cities are estimated. The procedure we use exploits the systematic differences in various cities’ sensitivity to regional house-price cycles. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Housing JEL Code(s): R, R1, R14, R3, R31, R5, R52
Detecting exuberance in house prices across Canadian cities Staff Analytical Note 2021-9 Ugochi Emenogu, Cars Hommes, Mikael Khan We introduce a model to detect periods of extrapolative house price expectations across Canadian cities. The House Price Exuberance Indicator can be updated on a quarterly basis to support the Bank of Canada’s broader assessment of housing market imbalances. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Housing JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, R, R2, R21, R3, R31
Examining the Impact of Home Purchase Restrictions on China’s Housing Market Staff Working Paper 2021-18 Zhentong Lu, Sisi Zhang, Jian Hong How do “cooling measures” in the housing market—policies aimed to stabilize prices—affect the market? We use a structural model of housing demand and price competition among developers to evaluate China’s home purchase restriction policies implemented in 2010–11. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Housing, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): O, O1, O18, R, R3, R31, R38
How Do Mortgage Rate Resets Affect Consumer Spending and Debt Repayment? Evidence from Canadian Consumers Staff Working Paper 2020-18 Katya Kartashova, Xiaoqing Zhou We study the causal effect of mortgage rate changes on consumer spending, debt repayment and defaults during an expansionary and a contractionary monetary policy episode in Canada. We find asymmetric responses of consumer durable spending, deleveraging and defaults. These findings help us to understand household sector response to interest rate changes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D14, E, E4, E43, E5, E52, G, G2, G21, R, R3, R31
The Effect of Mortgage Rate Resets on Debt: Evidence from TransUnion (Part I) Staff Analytical Note 2020-2 Katya Kartashova This note studies how decreases in mortgage rates affect the behaviour of borrowers in terms of spending on durable goods and repaying debt. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Housing, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D14, E, E4, E43, E5, E52, G, G2, G21, R, R3, R31
The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada Staff Working Paper 2018-56 Lutz Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou How do global oil price shocks spread through Canada’s economy? With Canada’s regionally diverse economy in mind, we explore the implications of oil price shocks for Canadian housing markets and regional economies. We show that the belief that oil price shocks only matter in oil-rich regions is false. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Housing, International topics, Labour markets, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): F, F4, F43, Q, Q3, Q33, Q4, Q43, R, R1, R12, R3, R31