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60 Results

Seasonal Adjustment of Weekly Data

Staff Discussion Paper 2024-17 Jeffrey Mollins, Rachit Lumb
The industry standard for seasonally adjusting data, X-13ARIMA-SEATS, is not suitable for high-frequency data. We summarize and assess several of the most popular seasonal adjustment methods for weekly data given the increased availability and promise of non-traditional data at higher frequencies.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C4, C5, C52, C8, E, E0, E01, E2, E21

Survey of Indigenous Firms: A Snapshot of Wages, Prices and Financing in the Indigenous Business Sector in Canada

Staff Discussion Paper 2024-4 Calista Cheung, James Fudurich, Janki Shah, Farrukh Suvankulov
What sources of financing do Indigenous-owned businesses in Canada use, and what are their expectations about prices, wages and inflation? We find Indigenous-owned firms are significantly less reliant on financial institutions as sources of financing compared with non-Indigenous firms. We also find Indigenous-owned firms have higher inflation expectations and weaker wage-growth expectations.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D0, G, G3, G38, J, J1, J15

COVID-19 Hasn’t Killed Merchant Acceptance of Cash: Results from the 2023 Merchant Acceptance Survey

Staff Discussion Paper 2024-2 Angelika Welte, Katrina Talavera, Liang Wang, Joy Wu
The Bank of Canada’s Merchant Acceptance Survey finds that 96% of small and medium-sized businesses in Canada accepted cash in 2023. Acceptance of debit and credit cards has increased to 89%, and acceptance of digital payments has also increased. However, Canada is far from being a cashless society.
January 15, 2024

Flood risk and residential lending

We present key findings of a recent study that evaluates the credit risk that flooding poses to the residential lending activities of Canadian banks and credit unions. Results show that such risk currently appears modest but could become larger with climate change.

Climate-Related Flood Risk to Residential Lending Portfolios in Canada

We assess the potential financial risks of current and projected flooding caused by extreme weather events in Canada. We focus on the residential real estate secured lending (RESL) portfolios of Canadian financial institutions (FIs) because RESL portfolios are an important component of FIs’ balance sheets and because the assets used to secure such loans are immobile and susceptible to climate-related extreme weather events.

Identifying Nascent High-Growth Firms Using Machine Learning

Staff Working Paper 2023-53 Stephanie Houle, Ryan Macdonald
Firms that grow rapidly have the potential to usher in new innovations, products or processes (Kogan et al. 2017), become superstar firms (Haltiwanger et al. 2013) and impact the aggregate labour share (Autor et al. 2020; De Loecker et al. 2020). We explore the use of supervised machine learning techniques to identify a population of nascent high-growth firms using Canadian administrative firm-level data.

Digitalization: Implications for Monetary Policy

We explore the implications of digitalization for monetary policy, both in terms of how monetary policy affects the economy and in terms of data analysis and communication with the public.

Cryptoasset Ownership and Use in Canada: An Update for 2022

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-14 Daniela Balutel, Christopher Henry, Doina Rusu
We find that Bitcoin ownership declined from 13% in 2021 to 10% in 2022. This drop occurred against a background of steep price declines and an increasingly tight regulatory atmosphere.

Why Consumers Disagree About Future Inflation

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-11 Naveen Rai, Patrick Sabourin
Since 2022, consumer inflation expectations have shifted, with a significant increase in those expecting high inflation in the coming year and a surge in those expecting deflation further in the future. Using data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, this paper seeks to assess the factors that influence people to expect high inflation, moderate inflation or deflation.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D8, D84, E, E3, E31

What People Believe About Monetary Finance and What We Can(’t) Do About It: Evidence from a Large-Scale, Multi-Country Survey Experiment

Staff Working Paper 2023-36 Cars Hommes, Julien Pinter, Isabelle Salle
We conduct a large-scale survey to shed light on what people believe about public finance. An experiment demonstrates that central bank communication can persistently shift views on monetary financing. It further suggests that views on monetary financing impact support for fiscal discipline.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, E, E5, E58, E6, E60, E62, E7, E70, G, G5, G53, H, H3, H31
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