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125 Results

How do Canadians perceive access to cash?

Staff Analytical Note 2024-24 Heng Chen, Daneal O’Habib, Hongyu Xiao
This paper introduces a subjective measure of cash accessibility in Canada, complementing existing distance-based metrics developed by Chen, O’Habib and Xiao (2023). Analyzing data from the 2023 Methods-of-Payment Survey, this study explores how Canadians perceive their ease of accessing cash from automated banking machines (ABMs) and financial institution branches.

Immigration and US Shelter Prices: The Role of Geographical and Immigrant Heterogeneity

Staff Working Paper 2024-40 James Cabral, Walter Steingress
The arrival of immigrants increases demand for housing and puts upward pressure on shelter prices. Using instrumental variables based on the ancestry composition of residents in US counties, we estimate the causal impact of immigration on local shelter prices.

From Micro to Macro Hysteresis: Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy

Staff Working Paper 2024-39 Felipe Alves, Giovanni L. Violante
We explore the long-run effects of a monetary policy shock in a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model built on the micro evidence that job losses lead to persistently lower individual earnings through a combination of skill decay and abandonment of the labour force.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52, J, J2, J24, J6, J64

Beyond the averages: Measuring underlying wage growth using Labour Force Survey microdata

Staff Analytical Note 2024-23 Fares Bounajm, Tessa Devakos, Gabriela Galassi
When it comes to understanding the influence of labour costs on inflation, average wage growth is a misleading indicator because it is affected by composition effects. We propose an alternative measure that corrects for these effects by using microdata from the Labour Force Survey. Our new measure has many desirable properties, including reduced volatility and a better relationship with labour market fundamentals.

Let’s Get Physical: Impacts of Climate Change Physical Risks on Provincial Employment

Staff Working Paper 2024-32 Thibaut Duprey, Soojin Jo, Geneviève Vallée
We analyze 40 years’ worth of natural disasters using a local projection framework to assess their impact on provincial labour markets in Canada. We find that disasters decrease hours worked within a week and lower wage growth in the medium run. Our study highlights that disasters affect vulnerable workers through the income channel.

Total factor productivity growth projection for Canada: A sectoral approach

Staff Analytical Note 2024-12 Dany Brouillette, Tessa Devakos, Raven Wheesk
We propose a tool that decomposes TFP growth into sectoral contributions. The analysis incorporates three structural factors—digitalization, aging and climate change policies—and measures their contributions. Overall, we expect that aggregate TFP growth will slow down in the 2020s below both its historical average and the average from the 2010s.

Survey of Indigenous Firms: A Snapshot of Wages, Prices and Financing in the Indigenous Business Sector in Canada

Staff Discussion Paper 2024-4 Calista Cheung, James Fudurich, Janki Shah, Farrukh Suvankulov
What sources of financing do Indigenous-owned businesses in Canada use, and what are their expectations about prices, wages and inflation? We find Indigenous-owned firms are significantly less reliant on financial institutions as sources of financing compared with non-Indigenous firms. We also find Indigenous-owned firms have higher inflation expectations and weaker wage-growth expectations.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D0, G, G3, G38, J, J1, J15

Third-Country Effects of U.S. Immigration Policy

Staff Working Paper 2023-60 Agostina Brinatti, Xing Guo
We study how the tightening of US immigration policy affects the Canadian economy and American workers. After the reduction in H-1B visa admissions in 2017, more immigrants came to Canada, and Canadian firms expanded their employment, sales and exports. The close trade link between the United States and Canada dampens the benefit American workers derive from this policy change.

Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation

We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth.
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