International Economic Sanctions and Third-Country Effects Staff Working Paper 2023-46 Fabio Ghironi, Daisoon Kim, Galip Kemal Ozhan We study the transmission and third-country effects of international sanctions. A sanctioned country’s losses are mitigated, and the sanctioning country’s losses amplified, if a third country does not join the sanctions, but the third country benefits from not joining. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F4, F41, F42, F5, F51
CBDC and Monetary Sovereignty Staff Analytical Note 2020-5 Antonio Diez de los Rios, Yu Zhu In an increasingly digitalized world, issuers of private digital currency can weaken central banks’ ability to stabilize the economy. By continuing to make central bank money attractive as a payment instrument in a digital world, a central bank digital currency (CDBC) could help to maintain a country’s monetary sovereignty. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, F, F5, F55, G, G1, G15
Changing Fortunes: Long-Termism—G-Zero, Artificial Intelligence and Debt Staff Discussion Paper 2019-12 Stephen S. Poloz This paper discusses three long-term forces that are acting on the global economy and their implications for companies and policy-makers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial stability, International topics, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E6, E63, F, F0, F02, F1, F15, F5, F53, F6, H, O, O1, O11, O3, O33
The Impact of a Trade War: Assessment of the Current Tariffs and Alternative Scenarios Staff Analytical Note 2019-20 Karyne B. Charbonneau This note uses Charbonneau and Landry’s (2018) framework to assess the direct impact of the current trade tensions on the Canadian and global economies, as well as possible implications if the conflict escalates further. Overall, my findings show that the estimated impact of current tariffs on real gross domestic product (GDP) remains relatively small, which is in line with the literature on gains from trade, but the impact on trade is much larger. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F13, F14, F15, F5, F50, F6, F62, F68
The Trade War in Numbers Staff Working Paper 2018-57 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Anthony Landry We build upon new developments in the international trade literature to isolate and quantify the long-run economic impacts of tariff changes on the United States and the global economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F13, F14, F15, F5, F50, F6, F62, F68
Estimating the Impacts of Tariff Changes: Two Illustrative Scenarios Staff Analytical Note 2018-29 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Anthony Landry We build upon new developments in the international trade literature to construct a quantitative Ricardian framework similar to Caliendo and Parro (2015) to isolate and estimate the long-run economic impacts of tariff changes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F13, F14, F15, F5, F50, F6, F62, F68
Policy Rules for Capital Controls Staff Working Paper 2017-42 Gurnain Pasricha This paper attempts to borrow the tradition of estimating policy reaction functions in monetary policy literature and apply it to capital controls policy literature. Using a novel weekly dataset on capital controls policy actions in 21 emerging economies over the period 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2015, I examine the mercantilist and macroprudential motivations for capital control policies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F4, F5, G, G0, G1
Capital Flows and Macroprudential Policies - A Multilateral Assessment of Effectiveness and Externalities Staff Working Paper 2014-31 John Beirne, Christian Friedrich This paper assesses the effectiveness and associated externalities that arise when macroprudential policies (MPPs) are used to manage international capital flows. Using a sample of up to 139 countries, we examine the impact of eight different MPP measures on cross-border bank flows over the period 1999-2009. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F5, G, G0, G01, G1, G11
February 21, 2013 The G-20 Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth: Macroeconomic Coordination Since the Crisis Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2012-2013 Robert Lavigne, Subrata Sarker Since 2009, the G-20 Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth has provided a mechanism for international macroeconomic policy coordination. The Framework has had some successes, including agreement on objectives for fiscal consolidation. However, post-crisis global growth has been neither strong nor balanced. Progress has also been slow in developing credible fiscal consolidation plans in some advanced countries and in increasing exchange rate flexibility in certain emerging economies. A stronger peer review process and enhanced analysis of international spillovers would increase the Framework’s influence on member policies. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Fiscal policy, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E6, E61, F, F5, F53, F55
Canada and the IMF: Trailblazer or Prodigal Son? Staff Discussion Paper 2009-1 Michael Bordo, Lawrence L. Schembri, Tamara Gomes Canada played an important role in the postwar establishment of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), yet it was also the first major member to challenge the orthodoxy of the BrettonWoods par value system by abandoning it in 1950 in favour of a floating, market-determined exchange rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, F, F4, F41, F5, F55, N, N7, N72