Sources of pandemic-era inflation in Canada: an application of the Bernanke and Blanchard model Staff Analytical Note 2024-13 Fares Bounajm, Jean Garry Junior Roc, Yang Zhang We explore the drivers of the surge in inflation in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic. This work is part of a joint effort by 11 central banks using the model developed by Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) to identify similarities and differences across economies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E31, E37, E5, E52, E6
Markups and Inflation in Oligopolistic Markets: Evidence from Wholesale Price Data Staff Working Paper 2024-20 Patrick Alexander, Lu Han, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Ben Tomlin We study how the interaction of market power and nominal price rigidity influences inflation dynamics. We find that pass-through declines with price stickiness when markets are concentrated, which implies a lower slope of the New Keynesian Phillips curve. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D4, D43, E, E3, E31, L, L1, L13, L8, L81
Pricing behaviour and inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from consumer prices microdata Staff Analytical Note 2024-6 Olga Bilyk, Mikael Khan, Olena Kostyshyna Using the microdata underlying the Canadian consumer price index, we study how often and by how much firms changed their prices during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that the surge in inflation was mainly associated with retailers raising prices much more often than before. We also find that more recently, corporate price-setting behaviour appears to be approaching pre-pandemic norms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E3, E31, L, L1, L11
How Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation Uncertainty Staff Working Paper 2024-5 Tao Wang The uncertainty regarding inflation that is observed in density forecasts of households and professionals helps macroeconomists understand the formation mechanism of inflation expectations. Shocks to inflation take time to be perceived by all agents in the economy, and such rigidity is lower in a high-inflation environment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): D, D8, D84, E, E3, E31, E7, E71
Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation Staff Analytical Note 2023-17 Julien Champagne, Erik Ens, Xing Guo, Olena Kostyshyna, Alexander Lam, Corinne Luu, Sarah Miller, Patrick Sabourin, Joshua Slive, Temel Taskin, Jaime Trujillo, Shu Lin Wee We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Housing, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): A, A1, A10, E, E2, E20, E3, E31, J, J1, J11, J15
Digitalization: Prices of Goods and Services Staff Discussion Paper 2023-27 Vivian Chu, Tatjana Dahlhaus, Christopher Hajzler This paper outlines and assesses the various channels through which digitalization can affect prices of goods and services. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Digitalization, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): D, D2, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, L, L1, L11
Variations in Pass-Through from Global Agricultural Commodity Prices to Domestic Food Inflation Staff Discussion Paper 2023-24 Daniel Hyun, Jacky Lee This paper examines factors that affect the transmission of fluctuations in global agricultural commodity prices to domestic food inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, Q, Q0, Q02, Q1, Q11, Q17, Q18
Digitalization: Implications for Monetary Policy Staff Discussion Paper 2023-18 Vivian Chu, Tatjana Dahlhaus, Christopher Hajzler, Pierre-Yves Yanni We explore the implications of digitalization for monetary policy, both in terms of how monetary policy affects the economy and in terms of data analysis and communication with the public. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Digitalization, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C4, C8, E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52
The contribution of firm profits to the recent rise in inflation Staff Analytical Note 2023-12 Panagiotis Bouras, Christian Bustamante, Xing Guo, Jacob Short We measure the contribution to inflation from the growth in markups of Canadian firms. The dynamics of inflation and markups suggest that changes in markups could account for less than one-tenth of inflation in 2021. Further, they suggest that peak inflation was driven primarily by changes in the costs of firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D4, E, E3, E31, L, L1, L11
Why Consumers Disagree About Future Inflation Staff Discussion Paper 2023-11 Naveen Rai, Patrick Sabourin Since 2022, consumer inflation expectations have shifted, with a significant increase in those expecting high inflation in the coming year and a surge in those expecting deflation further in the future. Using data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, this paper seeks to assess the factors that influence people to expect high inflation, moderate inflation or deflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D8, D84, E, E3, E31