April 3, 2023 Business Outlook Survey—First Quarter of 2023 Results from the first-quarter 2023 Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse surveys from January through March 2023 show a subdued sales outlook and plans for modest growth in capital expenditures. The labour market remains tight, but pressures have eased from high levels. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
April 3, 2023 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—First Quarter of 2023 Results in the first quarter of 2023 show that consumer expectations for inflation one to two years ahead fell but remain elevated, particularly for services. Consumers, especially indebted households and equity-deserving groups, are facing financial pressures and limits on their spending due to high inflation and increasing interest rates. Consumers expect to spend less on discretionary services, such as travelling and eating out. Canadians continue to anticipate a recession in the next 12 months. Many are uncertain about where the economy and job markets are going. Despite this, workers still see the labour market as strong and expect wage growth to increase. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
Turning Words into Numbers: Measuring News Media Coverage of Shortages Staff Discussion Paper 2023-8 Lin Chen, Stephanie Houle We develop high-frequency, news-based indicators using natural language processing methods to analyze news media texts. Our indicators track both supply (raw, intermediate and final goods) and labour shortages over time. They also provide weekly time-varying topic narratives about various types of shortages. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C82, E, E3, E37
What Consistent Responses on Future Inflation by Consumers Can Reveal Staff Discussion Paper 2023-7 Sarah Miller, Patrick Sabourin We analyze factors that may explain consistent answers to questions about inflation expectations in the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. We also compare the inflation forecasts of consumers with consistent responses with those of professional forecasters. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): D, D8, D80, D84, E, E3, E31
Supply Drivers of US Inflation Since the COVID-19 Pandemic Staff Working Paper 2023-19 Serdar Kabaca, Kerem Tuzcuoglu This paper examines the contribution of several supply factors to US headline inflation since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. We identify six supply shocks using a structural VAR model: labor supply, labor productivity, global supply chain, oil price, price mark-up and wage mark-up shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E31, E32
March 31, 2023 Release of the 2022 Bank of Canada FMI Oversight Activities Annual Report The Bank of Canada today published the Bank of Canada Oversight Activities for Financial Market Infrastructures 2022 Annual Report. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices
Central Bank Forecasting: A Survey Staff Working Paper 2023-18 Carola Conces Binder, Rodrigo Sekkel We review the literature on central bank forecasting with a special focus on the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E47, E5, E52, E58
March 31, 2023 Quarterly Research Update – 2023 Q1 This newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters