The Slowdown in Productivity Growth in the 1975-83 Period: A Survey of Possible Explanations Technical Report No. 43 Gerald Stuber The growth rates of both aggregate factor and labour productivity in Canada fell substantially during the period 1975-83. This paper examines this phenomenon and reviews a number of possible explanations for it. First, the productivity growth slowdown is examined at various levels of industry disaggregation. It is apparent from this analysis that the slowdown varied […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24
A Comparison of Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes in a Small Dynamic Open-Economy Simulation Model Technical Report No. 42 David Longworth, Stephen S. Poloz In this paper, the simulation properties of a small, dynamic, open-economy IS-LM-Aggregate Supply model are examined under a variety of alternative policy rule assumptions. These assumptions include rigid money stock, exchange rate and nominal income targets, as well as less rigid policy rules that recognize information limitations. The model that is used consists of four […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52
An Integrated Model of the Portfolio Behaviour of the Canadian Household Sector: 1968-1983 Technical Report No. 41 Stephen S. Poloz An econometric model of the portfolio behaviour of the Canadian household sector is developed to study the linkages between demands for financial assets. The theoretical basis for the model is a version of the well-known Brainard-Tobin framework, which is extended to integrate the consumption-savings and portfolio-allocation decisions. This integration allows joint estimation of the real […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): G, G1, G11
The Structure of the Small Annual Model Technical Report No. 40 David Rose, Jack Selody This volume contains a detailed description of the structure and sectoral properties of the Bank of Canada's Small Annual Model, SAM. The SAM model, constructed in the Research Department of the Bank, is designed for medium- to long-term simulation. It is small by econometric model standards; the version described in this report has 25 stochastic […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, E, E4
The Inflation-adjusted Rate of Return on Corporate Debt and Equity: 1966-1980 Technical Report No. 39 Stuart Gilson This report has two main objectives: First, to determine whether the real tax rate on investment income has proven sensitive to inflation; second, to determine the extent to which real returns to debt and equity, based on published data, differ from those based on inflation-adjusted data. The scope of the inflationary distortion in corporate income […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, G, G1, G12, G3, G30
Responses of Various Econometric Models to Selected Policy Shocks Technical Report No. 38 Brian O'Reilly, Graydon Paulin, Philip Smith In July, 1982 a seminar was held in Ottawa to compare the responses of nine major econometric models to a previously specified set of shocks to the Canadian economy. At the seminar, which was sponsored by the Bank of Canada and the Department of Finance, participants presented the results of their simulations and discussed the […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E1, E17
The Investment Supply Response of Traded-Goods Industries Technical Report No. 37 Paul Boothe In this paper, the author uses neoclassical investment equations to examine investment behaviour in four groups of Canadian industries: export-oriented, import-competing, two- way-trade, and low-trade. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Balance of payments and components JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22
La non-neutralité du mode de financement du gouvernement Technical Report No. 36 Paul Masson It has long been a subject of debate among economists as to whether different methods of financing government expenditures—issuing bonds or raising taxes—will bring about different effects on the economy. The purpose of this technical report is to quantify the substitution effects brought about by tax rate changes and to see to what extent they […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Debt management JEL Code(s): H, H6, H60
Asset Stocks and the Use of Monetary and Fiscal Policies to Reduce Inflation Technical Report No. 35 Paul Masson This paper analyzes the dynamic behaviour of a country's economy under different policy regimes, by examining the cyclical effects that occur when certain intermediate macroeconomic targets are adopted. To highlight the differences in the adjustment paths that result, the study deliberately limits policy choice: either money supply or nominal income as targets, and either real […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E6, E63
Modelling Government Fiscal Behaviour in Canada Technical Report No. 34 Jack Selody, Kevin Lynch There are many models of fiscal policy in the economic literature and each has been based on a particular set of assumptions concerning the interaction of policy variables. However, even though these assumptions are critical to the behaviour of the models, there has as yet been no systematic attempt to test their validity or relative […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, H, H3, H30, H6, H60