Does Inflation Uncertainty Vary with the Level of Inflation? Staff Working Paper 1996-9 Allan Crawford, Marcel Kasumovich The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that inflation uncertainty increases at higher levels of inflation. Our analysis is based on the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) class of models, which allow the conditional variance of the error term to be time-varying. Since this variance is a proxy for inflation uncertainty, a positive relationship between the conditional variance and inflation would be interpreted as evidence that inflation uncertainty increases with the level of inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E31
Interpreting Money-Supply and Interest-Rate Shocks as Monetary-Policy Shocks Staff Working Paper 1996-8 Marcel Kasumovich In this paper two shocks are analysed using Canadian data: a money-supply shock ("M-shock") and an interest-rate shock ("R-shock"). Money-supply shocks are derived using long-run restrictions based on long-run propositions of monetary theory. Thus, an M-shock is represented by an orthogonalized innovation in the trend shared by money and prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary and financial indicators, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E51
Excess Volatility and Speculative Bubbles in the Canadian Dollar: Real or Imagined? Technical Report No. 76 John Murray, Simon van Norden, Robert Vigfusson Greater intervention by the public sector is often proposed as a solution to the increased speculation and excessive price volatility thought to characterize today's competitive world financial system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Exchange rates JEL Code(s): C, C4, C40, F, F3, F31
June 27, 1996 Some current economic issues in Canada Remarks Gordon Thiessen London Chamber of Commerce London, Ontario Every year, the Bank of Canada's Board of Directors has one of its meetings outside Ottawa, in a different part of the country. I am delighted that this year's meeting has brought us to London today, giving me the opportunity to speak to you about recent developments in the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
May 20, 1996 Monetary Policy Report – May 1996 This Report presents the Bank of Canada’s assessment of the trend of inflation in Canada and explains the monetary policy actions deemed necessary to keep inflation within the Bank’s inflation-control target range. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
May 17, 1996 The Transmission of Monetary Policy Gordon Thiessen, Bruce Montador, Kevin Clinton, Kevin Fettig, Donna Howard, Charles Freedman, Pierre Duguay, Stephen S. Poloz, Tim Noël Text of major 1995 lecture by Bank Governor Gordon Thiessen, plus articles from Bank of Canada Review and other sources Content Type(s): Publications, Books and monographs Topic(s): Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5
May 11, 1996 Recent developments in monetary aggregates and their implications Bank of Canada Review - Spring 1996 Louis-Robert Lafleur, Walter Engert In 1995, the broad aggregate M2+ grew at an annual rate of 4.5 per cent—almost twice the rate recorded in 1994—as competition from mutual funds drew less money from personal savings deposits. An adjusted M2+ aggregate, which internalizes the effect of close substitutes such as CSBs and certain mutual funds, grew by only 3.4 per cent. Gross M1 grew by 8.2 per cent during the year, reflecting an increased demand for transactions balances as market interest rates declined and as banks offered more attractive rates of interest on corporate current account balances. The robust growth of gross M1 in the second half of 1995 suggests a moderate expansion of economic activity in the first half of 1996, while moderate growth in the broad aggregates indicates a rate of monetary expansion consistent with continued low inflation. In this annual review of the monetary aggregates, the authors also introduce a new model, based on calculated deviations of M1 from its long-run demand, which suggests that inflation should remain just below the midpoint of the inflation-control target range over the next couple of years. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Monetary aggregates, Recent economic and financial developments
May 11, 1996 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 1996 Cover page Danzig: 20-gulden note, 1932 This note is part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by James Zagon. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
May 10, 1996 Financing activities of provincial governments and their enterprises Bank of Canada Review - Spring 1996 Philip Wooldridge This article examines the changes that have occurred in the composition of funds raised by provincial borrowers during the 1990s. Higher financing requirements, coupled with the declining availability of funds from non-market sources such as the Canada Pension Plan, led provincial governments and their Crown corporations to broaden and to diversify their debt management programs. In particular, provincial borrowers expanded their presence in foreign bond markets, increased their issuance of floating-rate debt, and incorporated a wide variety of innovative debt instruments into their borrowing programs in order to minimize their borrowing costs and to manage the risks associated with the issuing of debt. As a result, the composition of funds raised by provincial borrowers during the 1990s differed markedly from that of the previous decade: between 1990 and 1995, provincial borrowing requirements were met almost entirely through the issuance of marketable debt, and net new foreign currency debt issues averaged nearly 50 per cent of funds raised, whereas between 1980 and 1989, non-market sources provided close to 30 per cent of funds raised, and net new foreign currency debt issues provided less than 20 per cent. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Debt management, Fiscal policy
May 9, 1996 The role of inventory management in Canadian economic fluctuations Bank of Canada Review - Spring 1996 Hung-Hay Lau Swings in inventory investment have traditionally played a major role in Canadian business cycles. However, advances in inventory-control techniques and the reduced uncertainty associated with lower inflation have enabled firms to manage their inventories much more tightly and effectively. This article examines recent developments in the management of non-farm business inventories in Canada at both the aggregate and the sectoral level and looks at implications for the role of inventories as a source of economic fluctuation. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Domestic demand and components