Decomposing Canada’s Market Shares: An Update Staff Analytical Note 2018-26 Nicholas Labelle Building on the shift-share analysis of Barnett and Charbonneau (2015), this note decomposes Canada’s market shares in the United States, Europe and China for imports of non-energy goods into competitiveness, preference shifts and an interaction term. We find that, despite the depreciation of the dollar, Canada continued to lose market share over 2014–17 (around 0.4 percentage points lost per year on average over four years). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F4
What Is Restraining Non-Energy Export Growth? Staff Analytical Note 2018-25 Dany Brouillette, José Dorich, Chris D'Souza, Adrienne Gagnon, Claudia Godbout This note summarizes the key findings from Bank of Canada staff analytical work examining the reasons for the recent weakness in Canadian non-energy exports. Canada steadily lost market share in US non-energy imports between 2002 and 2017, mostly reflecting continued and broad-based competitiveness losses. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F1, F10, F14, F17
The Extensive Margin of Trade and Monetary Policy Staff Working Paper 2018-37 Yuko Imura, Malik Shukayev This paper studies the effects of monetary policy shocks on firms’ participation in exporting. We develop a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which heterogeneous firms make forward-looking decisions on whether to participate in the export market and prices are staggered across firms and time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Firm dynamics, International topics, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F1, F12, F4, F44
The Scale and Scope of Online Retail Staff Analytical Note 2018-19 Alex Chernoff This paper studies the growth of online retail over the period 1999–2012, using confidential firm-product-level data for Canada. The revenue of online retailers is decomposed into the contributions of product scope (the number of product categories) and product scale (average revenue per product category). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Firm dynamics, International topics JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, L, L1, L11, L8, L81
The Political Impact of Immigration: Evidence from the United States Staff Working Paper 2018-19 Anna Maria Mayda, Giovanni Peri, Walter Steingress In this paper we study the impact of immigration to the United States on the vote for the Republican Party by analyzing county-level data on election outcomes between 1990 and 2010. Our main contribution is to separate the effect of high-skilled and low-skilled immigrants, by exploiting the different geography and timing of the inflows of these two groups of immigrants. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): F, F2, F22, J, J6, J61
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018 Staff Analytical Note 2018-9 Richard Beard, Anne-Katherine Cormier, Michael Francis, Katerina Gribbin, Justin-Damien Guénette, Christopher Hajzler, James Ketcheson, Kun Mo, Louis Poirier, Peter Selcuk, Kristina Hess This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4
Can Media and Text Analytics Provide Insights into Labour Market Conditions in China? Staff Working Paper 2018-12 Jeannine Bailliu, Xinfen Han, Mark Kruger, Yu-Hsien Liu, Sri Thanabalasingam The official Chinese labour market indicators have been seen as problematic, given their small cyclical movement and their only-partial capture of the labour force. In our paper, we build a monthly Chinese labour market conditions index (LMCI) using text analytics applied to mainland Chinese-language newspapers over the period from 2003 to 2017. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, C5, C55, E, E2, E24, E27
February 8, 2018 At the Crossroads: Innovation and Inclusive Growth Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins G7 Symposium on Innovation and Inclusive Growth Montebello, Quebec Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses technological progress and how policy-makers can harness it for economic growth that benefits everyone. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, International topics, Labour markets, Market structure and pricing, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
Non-linéarité de la courbe de Phillips : un survol de la littérature Staff Analytical Note 2018-3 Renaud St-Cyr The paper reviews evidence from the economic literature on the nature of the relationship between excess capacity and inflation, better known as the Phillips curve. In particular, we examine the linearity of this relationship. This is an important issue in the current economic context in which advanced economies are approaching or exceed their potential output. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32
Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities Staff Working Paper 2018-4 Lutz Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou It is widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is determined by the forces of demand and supply. One of the main determinants of the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities associated with unexpected fluctuations in global real economic activity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F4, F44, Q, Q1, Q11, Q3, Q31, Q4, Q41, Q43