Capital Flows and Macroprudential Policies - A Multilateral Assessment of Effectiveness and Externalities Staff Working Paper 2014-31 John Beirne, Christian Friedrich This paper assesses the effectiveness and associated externalities that arise when macroprudential policies (MPPs) are used to manage international capital flows. Using a sample of up to 139 countries, we examine the impact of eight different MPP measures on cross-border bank flows over the period 1999-2009. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F5, G, G0, G01, G1, G11
Information, Amplification and Financial Crisis Staff Working Paper 2014-30 Ali Kakhbod, Toni Ahnert We propose a parsimonious model of information choice in a global coordination game of regime change that is used to analyze debt crises, bank runs or currency attacks. A change in the publicly available information alters the uncertainty about the behavior of other investors. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, G, G0, G01
June 12, 2014 Stress Testing the Canadian Banking System: A System-Wide Approach Financial System Review - June 2014 Kartik Anand, Guillaume Bédard-Pagé, Virginie Traclet Stress testing is an important tool used by financial authorities and entities around the world to evaluate potential risks to the financial system. Kartik Anand, Guillaume Bédard-Pagé and Virginie Traclet discuss different stress-testing approaches, with emphasis on the innovative and analytically rigorous model developed by the Bank of Canada: the MacroFinancial Risk Assessment Framework (MFRAF). They also present the stress-test results obtained in the context of the 2013 Canada Financial Sector Assessment Program led by the International Monetary Fund, including the important contributions made by the use of MFRAF in the exercise. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, G, G0, G01, G2, G21
Rollover Risk, Liquidity and Macroprudential Regulation Staff Working Paper 2014-23 Toni Ahnert I study rollover risk in the wholesale funding market when intermediaries can hold liquidity ex ante and are subject to fire sales ex post. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G11, G2, G28
Monetary Policy Transmission during Financial Crises: An Empirical Analysis Staff Working Paper 2014-21 Tatjana Dahlhaus This paper studies the effects of a monetary policy expansion in the United States during times of high financial stress. The analysis is carried out by introducing a smooth transition factor model where the transition between states (“normal” and high financial stress) depends on a financial conditions index. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G0, G01
Banks’ Financial Distress, Lending Supply and Consumption Expenditure Staff Working Paper 2014-7 H. Evren Damar, Reint Gropp, Adi Mordel The paper employs a unique identification strategy that links survey data on household consumption expenditure to bank-level data in order to estimate the effects of bank financial distress on consumer credit and consumption expenditures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Domestic demand and components, Financial institutions JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E44, G, G0, G01, G2, G21
Funding Advantage and Market Discipline in the Canadian Banking Sector Staff Working Paper 2013-50 Mehdi Beyhaghi, Chris D'Souza, Gordon S. Roberts We employ a comprehensive data set and a variety of methods to provide evidence on the magnitude of large banks’ funding advantage in Canada, and on the extent to which market discipline exists across different securities issued by the Canadian banks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Interest rates JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28, G3, G32, G33
November 14, 2013 Assessing Financial System Vulnerabilities: An Early Warning Approach Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2013 Gurnain Pasricha, Tom Roberts, Ian Christensen, Brad Howell This article focuses on a quantitative method to identify financial system vulnerabilities, specifically, an imbalance indicator model (IIM) and its application to Canada. An IIM identifies potential vulnerabilities in a financial system by comparing current economic and financial data with data from periods leading up to past episodes of financial stress. It complements other sources of information - including market intelligence and regular monitoring of the economy - that policy-makers use to assess vulnerabilities. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): E, E6, E66, G, G0, G01
The ‘Celtic Crisis’: Guarantees, Transparency and Systemic Liquidity Risk Staff Working Paper 2013-31 Philipp König, Kartik Anand, Frank Heinemann Bank liability guarantee schemes have traditionally been viewed as costless measures to shore up investor confidence and prevent bank runs. However, as the experiences of some European countries, most notably Ireland, have demonstrated, the credibility and effectiveness of these guarantees are crucially intertwined with the sovereign’s funding risks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): D, D8, D89, G, G0, G01, G2, G28
Fire-Sale FDI or Business as Usual? Staff Working Paper 2013-17 Ron Alquist, Rahul Mukherjee, Linda Tesar Using a new data set, we examine the characteristics and dynamics of cross-border mergers and acquisitions during emerging-market financial crises, that is, so-called “fire-sale FDI.” Our findings shed fresh light on whether the transactions undertaken during crisis periods differ in fundamental ways from those undertaken during more tranquil periods. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, International financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, G, G0, G01, G3, G34