A Review of the Bank of Canada’s Support of Key Financial Markets During the COVID-19 Crisis Staff Discussion Paper 2023-9 Joshua Fernandes, Michael Mueller The COVID-19 pandemic placed unprecedented strain on the global financial system. We describe how the Bank of Canada responded to the rapidly deteriorating liquidity in core Canadian fixed-income markets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial markets, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E58, G, G0, G01
Pricing Indefinitely Lived Assets: Experimental Evidence Staff Working Paper 2023-25 John Duffy, Janet Hua Jiang, Huan Xie We study the trading of an asset with bankruptcy risk. The traded price of the asset is, on average, 40% of the expected total dividend payments. We investigate which economic models can explain the low traded price. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C9, C91, C92, D, D8, D81, G, G1, G12
From LVTS to Lynx: Quantitative Assessment of Payment System Transition Staff Working Paper 2023-24 Ajit Desai, Zhentong Lu, Hiru Rodrigo, Jacob Sharples, Phoebe Tian, Nellie Zhang We quantitatively assess the changes in participants’ payment behaviour from modernizing Canada's high-value payments system to Lynx. Our analysis suggests that Lynx's liquidity-saving mechanism encourages liquidity pooling and early payments submission, resulting in improved efficiency for participants but with slightly increased payment delays. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial services, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C1, C10, E, E4, E42, G, G2, G28
Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media Staff Working Paper 2023-23 Alistair Macaulay, Wenting Song News media present competing interpretations of what breaking news implies for the macroeconomy. Recent examples include news reporting on high inflation and yield curve inversions. Do these narratives shape macroeconomic sentiment? In this paper, we highlight the importance of narratives using evidence linking traditional media and social media. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): D, D8, D84, E, E3, E32, E4, E43, E44, E5, G, G1
What we can learn by linking firms’ reported emissions with their financial data Staff Analytical Note 2023-4 Matthew Ackman, Timothy Grieder, Callie Symmers, Geneviève Vallée We analyze the financial statements and stock prices of publicly traded firms incorporated in Canada that report greenhouse gas emissions. We find that these firms primarily use equity financing. We also find that equity investors increasingly account for firms’ emissions when making investment decisions but the impact appears small. This suggests that assets exposed to climate change remain at risk of a sudden repricing. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Climate change, Financial stability, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): G, G1, G3, Q, Q5
A Review of the Bank of Canada’s Market Operations Related to COVID-19 Staff Discussion Paper 2023-6 Grahame Johnson This paper reviews the range of extraordinary programs launched by the Bank of Canada in response to the pandemic-related financial market disruption. It provides some recommendations for future interventions to ensure the programs are appropriately structured for the financial and economic stresses they are intended to address. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): D, D4, D47, E, E4, E41, E5, G, G0, G01, G1, G14, G2, G21, G23, H, H1, H12
We Didn’t Start the Fire: Effects of a Natural Disaster on Consumers’ Financial Distress Staff Working Paper 2023-15 Anson T. Y. Ho, Kim Huynh, David T. Jacho-Chávez, Geneviève Vallée We use detailed consumer credit data to investigate the impact of the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, the costliest wildfire disaster in Canadian history, on consumers’ financial stress. We focus on the arrears of insured mortgages because of their important implications for financial institutions and insurers’ business risk and relevant management practices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Climate change, Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, D, D1, D12, G, G2, G21, Q, Q5, Q54
On the Fragility of DeFi Lending Staff Working Paper 2023-14 Jonathan Chiu, Emre Ozdenoren, Kathy Yuan, Shengxing Zhang We develop a dynamic model to capture key features of decentralized finance lending. We identify a price-liquidity feedback: the market outcome in any given period depends on agents' expectations about lending activities in future periods, with higher future price expectations leading to more lending and higher prices in that period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G10
Learning in a Complex World: Insights from an OLG Lab Experiment Staff Working Paper 2023-13 Cars Hommes, Stefanie J. Huber, Daria Minina, Isabelle Salle This paper brings novel insights into group coordination and price dynamics in complex environments. We implement a chaotic overlapping-generation model in the lab and find that group coordination is always on the steady state or on the two-cycle and that behavior is non-monotonic. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C6, C62, C68, C9, C91, C92, E, E1, E13, E7, E70, G, G1, G12, G4, G41
The Role of Intermediaries in Selection Markets: Evidence from Mortgage Lending Staff Working Paper 2023-12 Jason Allen, Robert Clark, Jean-François Houde, Shaoteng Li, Anna Trubnikova This paper looks at the role mortgage brokers play in helping borrowers generate quotes and qualify for credit. We find that, on average, borrowers that engage with a mortgage broker pay lower interest rates. However, in about 15% of cases, borrowers are steered towards longer amortizing mortgages than they would have chosen absent a broker. Since mortgages with longer amortization have higher total interest costs over the entire life of the mortgage, this steering is expensive. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial services, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G2, G21, L, L2