May 16, 2000 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2000 Cover page A Seventeenth-Century Collector's Guide This volume, as well as the coins, forms part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada, which, in addition to its numismatic holdings, also houses a reference library of more than 8,000 books, pamphlets, periodicals, and catalogues about money and banking. Photography by James Zagon. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
May 15, 2000 Credibility and Monetary Policy Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2000 Patrick Perrier, Robert Amano A highly credible monetary policy helps to reduce the degree of uncertainty that can surround the objectives of such policy. When the monetary policy pursued by the central bank is credible, the expectations of the public are focused on a target. If the public believes that the Bank will act to bring inflation back to the target, then its expectations will not react so strongly to fluctuating price trends. In turn, fluctuations in inflation, interest rates, output, and employment should be less pronounced than in the absence of such credibility. The adoption of inflation control as a monetary policy objective by some countries has led central banks to take steps to enhance the credibility of monetary policy. For the Bank of Canada, these include * the publication of our Monetary Policy Report each May and November, with formal updates each February and August * the initiation of communications activities across the country * the use of the overnight interest rate as a short-term operating target * the issuing of a press release each time the Bank changes its key rates To date, most of the studies on this topic have concluded that success in keeping inflation within a target range has helped to increase the credibility of Canadian monetary policy. These surveys suggest that expected inflation, which stood at about 5 per cent in 1990, declined to around 2 per cent by 1999 (Chart 1, page 15). Indeed, according to these surveys, for the entire period during which the Bank has had a target range for inflation, expected inflation rates have remained within that range. Inflation expectations have also reacted very little to changes in the total CPI, suggesting that the targets have helped to focus expectations on the target rate and have thus enhanced the credibility of monetary policy (Chart 2, page 16). One particular study shows that the life of collective wage agreements in Canada has been increasing and that the number of such agreements containing cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) clauses has steadily declined. The authors of this study suggest that this may reflect the greater credibility of Canadian monetary policy (Table 1, page 16). The proportion of mortgages with five-year terms is now higher than it was in the mid-1980s, and many financial institutions have been offering 7- to 10-year mortgages. This also suggests that inflation targets have gained credibility. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Recent economic and financial developments
May 11, 2000 Monetary Policy Report – May 2000 The global economy has shown greater strength than was anticipated at the time of the November Report. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
May 11, 2000 Release of the Monetary Policy Report Opening statement Gordon Thiessen This morning we released our latest Monetary Policy Report. The outlook that we see for Canadian economic growth and inflation is very positive. The economy has outperformed expectations since our November Report and the underlying trend of inflation has been lower than expected. With the global economy gaining momentum and greater demand at home, we […] Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
May 11, 2000 Bank of Canada releases its semi-annual Monetary Policy Report Media Relations The Bank of Canada today released its eleventh Monetary Policy Report in which it discusses economic and financial trends in the context of Canada's inflation-control strategy. The Monetary Policy Report is published every May and November. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
May 8, 2000 Bank of Canada to Stop Issuing $1000 Note Media Relations The Bank of Canada announced today that, effective May 12, it will stop issuing $1000 bank notes and will begin to withdraw them from circulation. The announcement follows the federal government's approval of an amendment to the Bank of Canada Notes Regulations to eliminate the $1000 note as part of the fight against money laundering […] Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
Probing Potential Output: Monetary Policy, Credibility, and Optimal Learning under Uncertainty Staff Working Paper 2000-10 James Yetman The effective conduct of monetary policy is complicated by uncertainty about the level of potential output, and thus about the size of the monetary policy response that would be sufficient to achieve the targeted inflation rate. One possible response to such uncertainty is for the monetary authority to "probe," interpreted here as actively using its policy response to learn about the level of potential output. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credibility, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58
Modelling Risk Premiums in Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets Staff Working Paper 2000-9 René Garcia, Maral Kichian The observed predictability of excess returns in equity and foreign exchange markets has largely been attributed to the presence of time-varying risk premiums in these markets. For example, excess equity returns were found to be explained by various financial and economic variables. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15
Testing the Pricing-to-Market Hypothesis: Case of the Transportation Equipment Industry Staff Working Paper 2000-8 Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian Pricing-to-market (PTM) theory suggests that monopolistic firms which export adjust their destination-specific markups in reaction to exchange rate shocks. These adjustments limit changes in the price of their exports. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C15, L, L1, L11, L16
May 4, 2000 Bank of Canada Governor Gordon Thiessen plans to retire on 31 January 2001 Ted Requard Bank of Canada Governor Gordon Thiessen has officially informed the Bank’s Board of Directors and staff that he will retire at the end of his term, effective 31 January 2001. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases