August 16, 2000 Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2000 Cover page Early French Scale The pieces featured on our cover form part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by James Zagon. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
August 16, 2000 Release of the Monetary Policy Report Update Opening statement Gordon Thiessen This morning we released our update to the May Monetary Policy Report. Overall, the outlook for Canadian economic growth and inflation is positive. Economic activity in Canada has remained strong since our May Report. Nonetheless, the underlying trend of inflation has been unexpectedly low - in the bottom half of our 1 to 3 per […] Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
August 15, 2000 Restructuring in the Canadian Economy: A Survey of Firms Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2000 Carolyn Kwan Towards the end of the 1980s and into the early 1990s, the Canadian economy experienced a number of structural changes. These included free trade agreements (both the FTA and NAFTA), significant technological advances, deregulation in many sectors of the economy, the arrival of large, U.S.-based retailers, and the introduction of the GST. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Labour markets, Productivity, Regional economic developments
August 14, 2000 Follow up on proposed modifications to Government of Canada Bond operations On July 21, 2000, the Bank of Canada announced that the Bank and the Department of Finance would be seeking the views of market participants on the feasibility of implementing a cash management buyback program and on the possibility of reverting back to March and September maturity dates for two-year bonds. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices
August 14, 2000 Approaches to Current Stock Market Valuations Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2000 Bob Hannah The increase in North American stock prices in 1999 and early 2000 has generated interest in the valuation assumptions that would make these price levels sustainable. Here, commonly used valuation techniques are applied to stock markets in Canada and the United States. For the comparative yield approach, real interest rates (rather than nominal rates) are preferred as the comparator of choice to yields on stock market indexes. The spreads between real interest rates and stock market yields have generally increased over the last two years. The dividend-discount model (DDM) approach provides an analytic linkage between the equity-risk premium and the expected growth of dividends. It suggests that market values (measured at the end of February 2000) could be sustained only by rapid growth of dividends in the future or by the continued assumption of an uncharacteristically low risk premium on equity. The spectacular rise in the value of technology stocks in 1999 is noted (Chart 4), and then the valuation measures for the Canadian stock market excluding the technology sector are examined. When this is done with the comparative yield approach, yield spreads are slightly lower, and for the DDM approach, one does not need to assume as high a growth of dividends or as low a risk premium to validate market valuations. Two effects of the "new economy" on the stock market are noted. One is the lowering of dividend yields, as new-economy technology companies tend to have a high reinvestment rate and a low dividend payout rate. Another relates to the potential for a higher track for the economy's productivity growth, which would mean that higher-than-historical assumptions about future earnings growth would be more plausible. Several explanations for the decline in risk premiums on equity are considered. While short-term volatility in the stock market has, if anything, increased in recent years, low inflation and improved economic performance, along with demographics and investor preferences, may have contributed to a decline in the risk premium demanded by investors. A scenario of rapid growth of dividends in the near term slowing to historical norms in the longer term is examined. While this approach can go partway towards explaining high stock market valuations, it requires assumptions that are outside historical experience. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing
A Practical Guide to Swap Curve Construction Staff Working Paper 2000-17 Uri Ron The swap market has enjoyed tremendous growth in the last decade. With government issues shrinking in supply and increased price volatilities, the swap term structure has emerged as an alternative pricing, benchmark, and hedging mechanism to the government term structure. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, International financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G15
Volatility Transmission Between Foreign Exchange and Money Markets Staff Working Paper 2000-16 Shafiq K. Ebrahim This paper uses trivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models to study price and volatility spillovers between the foreign exchange and associated money markets. Three models are estimated using data on U.S. dollar/Canadian dollar, U.S. dollar/Deutsche mark, and U.S. dollar/Japanese yen daily exchange rate returns together with returns on 90-day Eurodollar, Euro Canada, Euromark, and Euroyen deposits. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G15
July 21, 2000 Market views sought on proposed modifications to Government of Canada Bond operations The Debt Management Strategy 2000-01 (released 23 March 2000) noted that the Bank of Canada and the Department of Finance were assessing the potential for expanding the existing bond buyback program to include cash management purposes. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices
July 18, 2000 Proposed revisions to the rules pertaining to auctions of Receiver General term deposits (discussion paper) Comments: On 18 July 2000, the government and Bank of Canada made public a discussion paper concerning the management of the federal government's cash balances. The paper outlined the current framework and proposed changes, intended to increase competition and to strengthen the management of risks, in particular the credit risks involved in the investment of […]
July 18, 2000 Proposed revisions to the rules pertaining to auctions of Receiver General term deposits A discussion paper prepared jointly by the Department of Finance and the Bank of Canada, and being made public today, is proposing changes to the government’s approach to auctioning and investing its Canadian dollar cash balances. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices