Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment Staff Analytical Note 2023-6 Julien Champagne, Christopher Hajzler, Dmitry Matveev, Harlee Melinchuk, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Galip Kemal Ozhan, Youngmin Park, Temel Taskin We expect that potential output growth will rebound from 1.4% in 2022 to 2.2% on average between 2023 and 2026. We revised down our estimates of growth over 2022–25 relative to the April 2022 assessment. The Canadian nominal neutral rate remains unchanged—in the range of 2% to 3%. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5
May 9, 2023 CFIF Meeting (May 9, 2023) Content Type(s): Meetings Source(s): Canadian Fixed-Income Forum
Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2023 Staff Analytical Note 2023-5 Salma Ahmed, Aviel Avshalumov, Tania Chaar, Eshini Ekanayake, Helen Lao, Louis Poirier, Jenna Rolland-Mills, Argyn Toktamyssov, Lin Xiang We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.5% in 2022 to 2.8% by 2026. Compared with the April 2022 staff assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, unchanged from the last annual assessment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4
May 8, 2023 Bank of Canada Media Interview – La Presse Paul Beaudry, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, gave an interview to Hélène Baril of La Presse on the launch of a public consultation on a potential digital dollar. Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
May 8, 2023 Bank of Canada Media Interview – CBC News Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, gave an interview to Peter Armstrong of CBC News on the public consultations on a potential digital dollar. Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
May 8, 2023 Backgrounder on removing the past sales growth question from the Business Outlook Survey In the first quarter of 2023, Bank staff removed the question on past sales growth from the BOS questionnaire. This backgrounder outlines the reasons for the change and discusses its implications. Content Type(s): Background materials