December 21, 2002 Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2002-2003 Jeannine Bailliu, John Murray A series of major international financial crises in the 1990s, and the recent introduction of the euro, have renewed interest in alternative exchange rate systems. The choice of exchange rate regime is particularly relevant for emerging-market countries because other countries are perceived either as having no alternative to their current exchange rate arrangement or as highly unlikely to change. This article examines the evolution of exchange rate regimes in emerging markets over the past decade and compares the strengths and weaknesses of the various available systems. These include intermediate regimes, such as the adjustable pegged exchange rate popular throughout much of the post—war period, and the two extreme exchange rate regimes: permanently fixed or freely floating exchange rate regimes. Two recently proposed alternatives are also evaluated: the Managed Floating Plus and Baskets, Bands, and Crawling Pegs. Both try to combine the best elements of the flexible and fixed exchange rate systems, but the Managed Floating Plus is deemed to be the more promising alternative. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Development economics, Exchange rate regimes
December 20, 2002 Transparency and the Response of Interest Rates to the Publication of Macroeconomic Data Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2002-2003 Nicolas Parent The benefits of transparency—the outcome of the measures taken by the central bank to allow financial markets and economic agents to understand the factors it takes into account in formulating monetary policy—are now widely recognized. These benefits include smoother implementation of monetary policy and increased effectiveness as markets improve their ability to anticipate the Bank's policy decisions and account for them in their operations. How interest rates respond to the publication of macroeconomic data depends on the degree of transparency in monetary policy, as the rates will rise or fall as a reflection of the market's revised expectations. Before the Bank of Canada adopted initiatives to improve transparency, such as the inflation-control targets, the semi-annual publication of the Monetary Policy Report and Updates, and the fixed announcement dates, changes to the overnight rate created some volatility in interest rates, and publishing Canadian macroeconomic data did not appear to have a major impact on rates. This article shows how the Bank of Canada's steps towards greater transparency have increased the impact of Canadian data on short-term interest rates and have improved financial markets' understanding of how monetary policy decisions are taken. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates, Monetary policy and uncertainty
December 3, 2002 Bank of Canada keeps target for the overnight rate at 2 3/4 per cent Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 2 3/4 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is unchanged, and the Bank Rate remains at 3 per cent. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
December 2, 2002 Change to Bank of Canada Interest Rate Spread for Items Cleared through the Automated Clearing Settlement System (ACSS) The Canadian Payments Association introduced the Large Value Transfer System, an electronic system for the transfer of payments, on 4 February 1999. Virtually all of the value of public sector payment flows and most payments related to wholesale market transactions now move through the LVTS. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices
December 2, 2002 Canadian Foreign Exchange Market Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics Financial System Review - December 2002 Chris D'Souza Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Salaire réel, chocs technologiques et fluctuations économiques Staff Working Paper 2002-42 Dominique Tremblay The author presents empirical evidence that he has obtained from an analysis of the response of different economic variables, including the real wage rate, to a technology shock. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E2, E24, E3, E32
Estimating Settlement Risk and the Potential for Contagion in Canada's Automated Clearing Settlement System Staff Working Paper 2002-41 Carol Ann Northcott Payments systems operate virtually unnoticed in our daily lives and yet are crucial to a wellfunctioning economy and financial system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G2, G21
Inflation Changes, Yield Spreads, and Threshold Effects Staff Working Paper 2002-40 Greg Tkacz Using interest rate yield spreads to explain changes in inflation, we investigate whether such relationships can be modelled using two-regime threshold models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, E, E3, E31
An Empirical Analysis of Dynamic Interrelationships Among Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, Relative Price Dispersion, and Output Growth Staff Working Paper 2002-39 Francis Vitek Within a unified framework, the author conducts an empirical investigation of dynamic interrelationships among inflation, inflation uncertainty, relative price dispersion, and output growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31
Oil-Price Shocks and Retail Energy Prices in Canada Staff Working Paper 2002-38 Marwan Chacra The effects of global energy-price shocks on retail energy prices in Canada are examined. More specifically, the author looks at the response of the consumer price indexes for gasoline, heating oil, natural gas, and electricity in Canada to movements in world crude oil prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C51, C53, Q, Q4, Q40