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9249 Results

December 18, 2003

Debt Strategy 2004/05 Consultation Document

The purpose of the consultations is to obtain the views of market participants on issues relating to the design and operation of the Government of Canada domestic debt programs for fiscal year 2004/05 and beyond.

Common Trends and Common Cycles in Canadian Sectoral Output

Staff Working Paper 2003-44 Francisco Barillas, Christoph Schleicher
The authors examine evidence of long- and short-run co-movement in Canadian sectoral output data. Their framework builds on a vector-error-correction representation that allows them to test for and compute full-information maximum-likelihood estimates of models with codependent cycle restrictions.
December 8, 2003

Past Adjustments and Future Trends in the Canadian Economy

Remarks David Dodge London Chamber of Commerce London, Ontario
When giving a speech near the end of a year, it is common practice to look back over the past 12 months, consider what we have learned from the events and experiences of the year, and think a bit about what might lie ahead. I became Governor of the Bank of Canada in 2001 and, since that time, I have found myself saying at the end of each year, "Well, we won't see another year like that again."

Why Does Private Consumption Rise After a Government Spending Shock?

Staff Working Paper 2003-43 Hafedh Bouakez, Nooman Rebei
Recent empirical evidence suggests that private consumption is crowded-in by government spending. This outcome violates existing macroeconomic theory, according to which the negative wealth effect brought about by a rise in public expenditure should decrease consumption.

A Structural VAR Approach to the Intertemporal Model of the Current Account

Staff Working Paper 2003-42 Takashi Kano
The intertemporal current account approach predicts that the current account of a small open economy is independent of global shocks, and that responses of the current account to country-specific shocks depend on the persistence of the shocks. The author shows that these predictions impose cross-equation restrictions (CERS) on a structural vector autoregression (SVAR).

Poignée de main invisible et persistance des cycles économiques : une revue de la littérature

Staff Working Paper 2003-40 Christian Calmès
The author explains how self-enforcing labour contracts can enhance the performance of macroeconomic models. He exposes the benefits of using these dynamic contracts to account for some puzzling macroeconomic facts regarding the dynamics and persistence of employment, consumption and output.

Alternative Targeting Regimes, Transmission Lags, and the Exchange Rate Channel

Staff Working Paper 2003-39 Jean-Paul Lam
Using a closed-economy model, Jensen (2002) and Walsh (2003) have, respectively, shown that a policy regime that optimally targets nominal income growth (NIT) or the change in the output gap (SLT) outperforms a regime that targets inflation, because NIT and SLT induce more inertia in the actions of the central bank, effectively replicating the outcome obtained under precommitment. The author obtains a very different result when the analysis is extended to open-economy models.
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