June 17, 2019 The merits of a floating exchange rate Speech summary Lawrence L. Schembri Economics Society of Northern Alberta (ESNA) Edmonton, Alberta Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri explains how Canada’s monetary policy framework—inflation targeting underpinned by a flexible exchange rate—has proved to be the most durable in the post-war period. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates, Financial markets, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework
February 21, 2019 Price check: Inflation in Canada Sharon Kozicki, Jill Vardy, Laurence Savoie-Chabot Why prices change, and what it means for the economy. Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability
February 21, 2019 Toward 2021: The Power—and Limitations—of Policy Remarks Stephen S. Poloz The Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal Montréal, Quebec Governor Poloz explains that monetary policy is a powerful tool to promote economic welfare, but it also has some important limits. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial stability, Inflation targets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework, Recent economic and financial developments
February 21, 2019 Monetary policy brings benefits—but has limits Speech summary Stephen S. Poloz Montréal, Quebec In his first speech of 2019, Governor Stephen S. Poloz explains that monetary policy is a powerful tool to promote our economic welfare. But he also notes that it has some key limits that need to be better understood in the face of uncertainty. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework
Limited Commitment, Endogenous Credibility and the Challenges of Price-level Targeting Staff Working Paper 2018-61 Gino Cateau, Malik Shukayev This paper studies the cost of limited commitment when a central bank has the discretion to adjust policy whenever the costs of honoring its past commitments become high. Specifically, we consider a central bank that seeks to implement optimal policy in a New Keynesian model by committing to a price-level target path. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credibility, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52
Credibility, Flexibility and Renewal: The Evolution of Inflation Targeting in Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2018-18 Thomas J. Carter, Rhys R. Mendes, Lawrence L. Schembri In 1991, Canada became the second country to adopt an inflation target as a central pillar of its monetary policy framework. The regime has proven much more successful than initially expected, both in achieving price stability and in stabilizing the real economy against a wide range of shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Credibility, Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61
November 20, 2018 Choosing the Best Monetary Policy Framework for Canada Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins McGill University Max Bell School of Public Policy Montréal, Quebec Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses public policy issues around monetary policy frameworks and how those issues have become more complex in the post-global financial crisis world. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework
Evaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and Forecasts Staff Working Paper 2018-52 Julien Champagne, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Rodrigo Sekkel We present a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada’s staff economic projections. We then provide a forecast evaluation for GDP growth and CPI inflation since 1982: we compare the staff forecasts with those from commonly used time-series models estimated with real-time data and with forecasts from other professional forecasters and provide standard bias tests. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Inflation targets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E1, E17, E3, E37
September 8, 2018 Investing in Monetary Policy Independence in a Small Open Economy Remarks Stephen S. Poloz, Césaire Meh Monetary Policy Spillovers in a Financially Integrated World Copenhagen, Denmark Governor Poloz discusses policies that can help central banks keep the ability to pursue independent monetary policy in a financially integrated global economy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation
September 6, 2018 An Update on Canada’s Economic Resilience Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Saskatchewan Trade & Export Partnership Regina, Saskatchewan Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins discusses economic developments since the July Monetary Policy Report and Governing Council’s deliberations leading to yesterday’s policy rate decision. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration