What Can Stockouts Tell Us About Inflation? Evidence from Online Micro Data Staff Working Paper 2021-52 Alberto Cavallo, Oleksiy Kryvtsov Did supply disruptions and cost pressures play a role in rising inflation in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic? Using data collected from websites of large retailers in multiple sectors and countries, we show that shortages may indicate transitory inflationary pressures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E3, E31, E37
Assessing Labour Market Slack for Monetary Policy Staff Discussion Paper 2021-15 Erik Ens, Laurence Savoie-Chabot, Kurt See, Shu Lin Wee Measuring labour market slack is essential for central banks: without full employment in the economy, inflation will not stay close to target. We propose a comprehensive approach to assessing labour market slack that reflects the complexity and diversity of the labour market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J6
September 24, 2021 Monitoring payment deferrals during the COVID-19 pandemic—update, July 2021 Geneviève Vallée In the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada’s financial institutions allowed households to defer payments on a range of loans. With nearly all of these deferrals having expired, we provide a final update of how these loans have performed through to July 2021. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Hub articles Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credit and credit aggregates
Payment Habits During COVID-19: Evidence from High-Frequency Transaction Data Staff Working Paper 2021-43 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Angelika Welte We examine how consumers have adjusted their payment habits during the COVID-19 pandemic. They seem to perform fewer transactions, spend more in each transaction, use less cash at the point of sale and withdraw cash from ATMs linked to their financial institution more often than from other ATMs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Payment clearing and settlement systems, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C55, D, D1, D12, E, E2, E21, E4, E42, E5, E52
September 9, 2021 Monetary policy as the recovery progresses Speech summary Tiff Macklem Fédération des chambres de commerce du Québec Montréal, Quebec Governor Tiff Macklem talks about the Bank of Canada’s decision yesterday to leave the policy rate unchanged. He also talks about how the Bank could adjust monetary policy once the economy needs less support. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet
September 9, 2021 Economic progress report: Monetary policy for the recovery Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem Fédération des chambres de commerce du Québec Montréal, Quebec Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem talks about the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and discusses how the Bank could adjust monetary policy and its quantitative easing program as the recovery progresses. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet
Canadian job postings in digital sectors during COVID-19 Staff Analytical Note 2021-18 Alejandra Bellatin, Gabriela Galassi Digital technologies have helped maintain economic activity while allowing people to remain physically distant throughout the COVID-19 crisis. This note shows that the number of online postings for jobs related to the production of digital technologies in Canada decreased less than the number for other jobs and recovered more quickly after lockdowns were lifted. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J23, J6, J63, J64, O, O3, O33
The uneven economic consequences of COVID 19: A structural analysis Staff Analytical Note 2021-17 Martin Kuncl, Austin McWhirter, Alexander Ueberfeldt Using a structural model, we study the economic consequences of the COVID-19 shock. The uneven consequences, such as higher unemployment among young households, amplify the negative implications for the macroeconomy, household vulnerabilities and consumption inequality. Government support programs have stimulated the economy and lowered inequality and medium-term vulnerabilities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E20, E5, E52, E6, E62
Cash and COVID-19: The impact of the second wave in Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2021-12 Heng Chen, Walter Engert, Marie-Hélène Felt, Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Daneal O’Habib, Julia Zhu The COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased the demand for cash. Cash in circulation increased sharply from March through December 2020, particularly in the early months of this period. Although use of electronic methods of payment also increased significantly, cash use for payments remains high for low-value transactions and among certain demographic groups. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C9, E, E4, O, O5, O54
Sequencing Extended Monetary Policies at the Effective Lower Bound Staff Discussion Paper 2021-10 Yang Zhang, Lena Suchanek, Jonathan Swarbrick, Joel Wagner, Tudor Schlanger In this analysis, we use simulations in the Bank of Canada’s projection model—the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model—to consider a suite of extended monetary policies to support the economy following the COVID-19 crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E4, E5, E52, E58