News-Driven International Credit Cycles Staff Working Paper 2021-66 Galip Kemal Ozhan This paper examines the implications of positive news about future asset values that turn out to be incorrect at a later date in an open economy model with banking. The model captures the patterns of bank credit and current account dynamics in Spain between 2000 and 2010. The model finds that the use of unconventional policies leads to a milder bust. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Financial stability, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, F, F3, F32, F4, F41, G, G1, G15, G2, G21
Quantifying the Economic Benefits of Payments Modernization: the Case of the Large-Value Payment System Staff Working Paper 2021-64 Neville Arjani, Fuchun Li, Zhentong Lu Canada is undertaking a major initiative to modernize its payments ecosystem. The modernized ecosystem is expected to bring significant benefits to Canadian financial markets and the overall economy. We develop an empirical framework to quantify the economic benefits of modernizing the payment system in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C3, E, E4, E42, G, G1, G2, G28
Monetary Policy Spillover to Small Open Economies: Is the Transmission Different under Low Interest Rates? Staff Working Paper 2021-62 Jin Cao, Valeriya Dinger, Tomás Gómez, Zuzana Gric, Martin Hodula, Alejandro Jara, Ragnar Juelsrud, Karolis Liaudinskas, Simona Malovaná, Yaz Terajima Does the transmission of monetary policy change when interest rates are low or negative? We shed light on this question by analyzing the international bank lending channels of monetary policy using regulatory data on banks from four small open economies: Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic and Norway. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, F, F3, F34, F4, F42, G, G2, G21, G28
The Countercyclical Capital Buffer and International Bank Lending: Evidence from Canada Staff Working Paper 2021-61 David Xiao Chen, Christian Friedrich We examine the impact of the CCyB on foreign lending activities of Canadian banks. We show that the announcement of a tightening in another country’s CCyB leads to a decrease in the growth rate of cross-border lending between Canadian banks and borrowers in that other country. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit risk management, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, F, F2, F21, F3, F32, G, G2, G21, G28
Democratic Political Economy of Financial Regulation Staff Working Paper 2021-59 Igor Livshits, Youngmin Park We offer a theory of how inefficiently lax financial regulation could arise in a democratic society. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28, P, P4, P48
Updated Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Sovereigns Staff Discussion Paper 2021-16 Karim McDaniels, Nico Palesch, Sanjam Suri, Zacharie Quiviger, John Walsh We update the Bank of Canada’s credit rating methodology for sovereigns, including our approach to assessing their fiscal position and monetary policy flexibility. We also explicitly consider climate-related factors. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Credit risk management, Foreign reserves management JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G2, G24, G28, G3, G32
Systemic Risk and Portfolio Diversification: Evidence from the Futures Market Staff Working Paper 2021-50 Radoslav Raykov This paper explores how the Canadian futures market contributed to banks’ systemic risk during the 2008 financial crisis. It finds that core banks as a whole traded against the periphery, in this way increasing their risk of simultaneous losses. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G20
A Q-Theory of Banks Staff Working Paper 2021-44 Juliane Beganau, Saki Bigio, Jeremy Majerovitz, Matías Vieyra Using stock market data on banks, we show that the book value of loans recognizes losses with a delay. This delayed accounting is important for regulation because the requirements regulators impose are based on book values. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G2, G21, G3, G32, G33
Can the characteristics of new mortgages predict borrowers’ financial stress? Insights from the 2014 oil price decline Staff Analytical Note 2021-22 Olga Bilyk, Ken Chow, Yang Xu We study the relationship between characteristics of new mortgages and borrowers’ financial stress in Canada’s energy-intensive regions following the 2014 collapse in oil prices. We find that borrowers with limited home equity were more likely to have difficulty repaying debt. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Housing JEL Code(s): C, C2, C25, D, D1, D14, G, G2, G21, G5, G51, R, R2, R21
Centralizing Over-the-Counter Markets? Staff Working Paper 2021-39 Jason Allen, Milena Wittwer Would a shift in trading in fixed-income markets—from over the counter (bilateral trading) to a centralized electronic platform—improve welfare? We use trade-level data on the secondary market for Government of Canada debt to answer this question. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, D40, D47, G, G1, G10, G2, G20, L, L1, L10