Time-Consistent Control in Non-Linear Models Staff Working Paper 2007-3 Steve Ambler, Florian Pelgrin We show how to use optimal control theory to derive optimal time-consistent Markov-perfect government policies in nonlinear dynamic general equilibrium models, extending the result of Cohen and Michel (1988) for models with quadratic objective functions and linear dynamics. We replace private agents' costates by flexible functions of current states in the government's maximization problem. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, E, E6, E61, E62
Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada Staff Working Paper 2007-2 Rose Cunningham, Ilan Kolet Housing wealth is a large component of total wealth and plays an important role in aggregate business cycles. In this paper, we explore data on real house price cycles at the aggregate level and city level for the United States and Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C4, C41, E, E3, E32, R, R2, R21
February 1, 2007 Opening Statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Remarks David Dodge House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Our interest in income trusts relates to the efficient functioning and health of Canada's financial system. A safe and efficient financial system is essential to Canada's economic well-being. The Bank of Canada works with other government agencies, as well as market participants, to promote the safe and efficient functioning of the financial system. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables Staff Working Paper 2007-1 John Galbraith, Greg Tkacz For stationary transformations of variables, there exists a maximum horizon beyond which forecasts can provide no more information about the variable than is present in the unconditional mean. Meteorological forecasts, typically excepting only experimental or exploratory situations, are not reported beyond this horizon; by contrast, little generally accepted information about such maximum horizons is available for economic variables. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53
January 30, 2007 Annual Report 2006 The year 2006 marked a turning point for the Bank of Canada. We successfully completed our medium-term plan, The Way Forward, and began writing a fresh chapter in the Bank’s history based on a new three-year plan. In this annual report, we do more than give an accounting of past achievements. We also provide forward-looking information on the plans and priorities in our new medium-term plan. And as we advance, we are always mindful of the Bank’s original mandate, set out more than 70 years ago, to “promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada.” Content Type(s): Publications, Annual Report
January 25, 2007 Dodge discusses monetary policy and the economy, calls for stronger IMF Media Relations Toronto, Ontario "This simple paradigm is very helpful because monetary policy works better when it is understood," the Governor said. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
January 25, 2007 Monetary Policy and Developments in the Global and Canadian Economies Remarks David Dodge Canadian Netherlands Business and Professional Association, and the European Union Chamber of Commerce in Toronto Toronto, Ontario The Bank of Canada has been around for over 70 years. Throughout this period, the Bank has had one over-arching mandate: to promote the economic and financial welfare of Canadians. Over the years, we have learned that the best contribution that monetary policy can make in this regard is to give Canadians confidence in the future value of their money. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
January 23, 2007 Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2006-2007 Cover page French Provincial Issues in Canada The coins pictured on the cover are part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
January 18, 2007 Bank of Canada releases Monetary Policy Report Update Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario he Bank of Canada today released the January update to the Monetary Policy Report, which discusses current economic and financial trends in the context of Canada's inflation-control strategy. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
January 18, 2007 Release of the Monetary Policy Report Update Opening statement David Dodge The Canadian economy is judged to have been operating at, or just above, its production capacity at the end of 2006, following weaker-than-expected growth in the second half of last year. This slowdown stemmed from reduced demand for Canadian exports - related to weakness in the U.S. automotive and housing sectors - and from the need for Canadian businesses to adjust inventories. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements