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9131 Results

Adopting Price-Level Targeting under Imperfect Credibility in ToTEM

Using the Bank of Canada's main projection and policy-analysis model, ToTEM, this paper measures the welfare gains of switching from inflation targeting to price-level targeting under imperfect credibility. Following the policy change, private agents assign a probability to the event that the policy-maker will revert to inflation-targeting next period.

Real Effects of Price Stability with Endogenous Nominal Indexation

Staff Working Paper 2009-16 Césaire Meh, Vincenzo Quadrini, Yaz Terajima
We study a model with repeated moral hazard where financial contracts are not fully indexed to inflation because nominal prices are observed with delay as in Jovanovic & Ueda (1997).

Heterogeneous Beliefs and Housing-Market Boom-Bust Cycles in a Small Open Economy

Staff Working Paper 2009-15 Hajime Tomura
This paper introduces heterogeneous beliefs among households in a small open economy model for the Canadian economy. The model suggests that simultaneous boom-bust cycles in house prices, output, investment, consumption and hours worked emerge when credit-constrained mortgage borrowers expect that future house prices will rise and this expectation is neither shared by savers nor realized ex-post.

Testing for Financial Contagion with Applications to the Canadian Banking System

Staff Working Paper 2009-14 Fuchun Li
The author proposes a new test for financial contagion based on a non-parametric measure of the cross-market correlation. The test does not depend on the assumption that the data are drawn from a given probability distribution; therefore, it allows for maximal flexibility in fitting into the data.
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