Understanding Post-COVID Inflation Dynamics Staff Working Paper 2022-50 Martin Harding, Jesper Lindé, Mathias Trabandt We propose a macroeconomic model with a nonlinear Phillips curve that has a flat slope when inflationary pressures are subdued and steepens when inflationary pressures are elevated. Our model can generate more sizable inflation surges due to cost-push and demand shocks than a standard linearized model when inflation is high. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Economic models, Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E31, E32, E37, E4, E44, E5, E52
December 12, 2022 Putting the resolute in resolutions: Looking ahead to lower inflation Remarks Tiff Macklem Business Council of British Columbia Vancouver, British Columbia Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the important lessons from 2022 and explains what the Bank is doing to restore price stability for Canadians. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Inflation and prices, Interest rates, International topics, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments
December 12, 2022 Reflections on 2022 Speech summary Tiff Macklem Business Council of British Columbia Vancouver, British Columbia Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the important lessons from events in 2022 and what the Bank is doing to restore price stability for Canadians. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Inflation and prices, Interest rates, International topics, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments
Monetary Policy, Credit Constraints and SME Employment Staff Working Paper 2022-49 Julien Champagne, Émilien Gouin-Bonenfant We revisit an old question: how do financial constraints affect the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy? To answer this question, we propose a simple empirical strategy that combines firm-level employment and balance sheet data, identified monetary policy shocks and survey data on financing activities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Firm dynamics, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E43, E5, E52, G, G3
November 10, 2022 Getting back to stable prices and a balanced jobs market Speech summary Tiff Macklem Public Policy Forum Toronto, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the relationship between inflation and employment and how the Bank of Canada is working to cool an overheated economy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Potential output, Price stability, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
November 10, 2022 Restoring labour market balance and price stability Remarks Tiff Macklem Public Policy Forum Toronto, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem outlines the link between high inflation and tight labour markets. He explains how the Bank is working to rebalance the labour market and discusses how structural changes may influence the supply of workers in Canada. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Potential output, Price stability, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
Stagflation and Topsy-Turvy Capital Flows Staff Working Paper 2022-46 Julien Bengui, Louphou Coulibaly Unregulated capital flows are likely excessive during a stagflation episode, owing to a macroeconomic externality operating through the economy’s supply side. Inflows raise domestic wages and cause unwelcome upward pressure on firm costs, yet market forces likely generate such inflows. Optimal capital flow management instead requires net outflows. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): D, D6, D62, E, E5, E52, F, F3, F32, F38, F4, F41
Core inflation over the COVID-19 pandemic Staff Analytical Note 2022-17 Mikael Khan, Elyse Sullivan We assess the usefulness of various measures of core inflation over the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that Cpi-trim and CPI-median provided the best signal of underlying inflation. The favourable performance of these measures stems from their lack of reliance on historical experience, an especially valuable feature in unprecedented times. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, E, E3, E31
October 6, 2022 What’s happening to inflation and why it matters Remarks Tiff Macklem Halifax Chamber of Commerce Halifax, Nova Scotia Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how inflation has evolved in recent months and explains what the Bank is watching as it takes action to return inflation to target. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments, Service sector
October 6, 2022 Restoring price stability for all Canadians Speech summary Tiff Macklem Halifax Chamber of Commerce Halifax, Nova Scotia Governor Tiff Macklem explains how inflation in Canada reflects more and more what’s happening with domestic demand and what the Bank is watching as it works to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments, Service sector