Predictive Ability of Commodity Prices for the Canadian Dollar Staff Analytical Note 2016-2 Kimberly Berg, Pierre Guérin, Yuko Imura Recent sharp declines in commodity prices and the simultaneous depreciation of the Canadian dollar (CAD) relative to the U.S. dollar (USD) have rekindled an interest in the relationship between commodity prices and the CAD-USD exchange rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates
Limits to Arbitrage and Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity Staff Discussion Paper 2016-4 James Pinnington, Maral Shamloo We document an increase in deviations from short-term covered interest rate parity (CIP) in the first half of 2015. Since the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) decision to abandon its minimum exchange rate policy, both the magnitude and volatility of deviations from CIP have increased across several currency pairs. The effect is particularly pronounced for pairs involving the Swiss franc. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15
A New Measure of the Canadian Effective Exchange Rate Staff Discussion Paper 2016-1 Russell Barnett, Karyne B. Charbonneau, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle Canada’s international competitiveness has received increasing attention in recent years as exports have fallen short of expectations and Canada has lost market share. This paper asks whether the Bank of Canada’s current effective exchange rate measure, the CERI, is still an accurate measure of Canada’s international competitiveness. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F3, F31
The Complex Adjustment of the Canadian Economy to Lower Commodity Prices Staff Analytical Note 2016-1 Julien Champagne, Nikita Perevalov, Hope Pioro, Dany Brouillette, Andrew Agopsowicz In this analytical note, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the complex structural adjustment facing the Canadian economy following the commodity price decline since mid-2014. We quantify separately the impacts coming from the commodity sector restructuring and the broader effect of significantly lower terms of trade. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rates, Labour markets, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E5, E52, J, J2, Q, Q0, Q00
January 7, 2016 Life After Liftoff: Divergence and U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization Remarks Stephen S. Poloz The Mayor’s Breakfast Series Ottawa, Ontario Governor Poloz talks about the global commodity price shock and how it is leading to economic and financial divergence. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Exchange rates, Inflation targets, Interest rates, International financial markets, Monetary policy
Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Labour Market Adjustments in Canadian Manufacturing Industries Staff Working Paper 2015-45 Gabriel Bruneau, Kevin Moran We estimate the link between exchange rate fluctuations and the labour input of Canadian manufacturing industries. The analysis is based on a dynamic model of labour demand, and the econometric strategy employs a panel two-step approach for cointegrating regressions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, F, F1, F14, F16, F3, F31, F4, F41, J, J2, J23
October 27, 2015 Inflation Targeting—A Matter of Time Remarks Timothy Lane CFA Society Atlantic Canada Halifax, Nova Scotia Deputy Governor Tim Lane discusses monetary policy decision making and how the Bank assesses the underlying trend in inflation. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary and financial indicators, Monetary policy framework
An Update - Canadian Non-Energy Exports: Past Performance and Future Prospects Staff Discussion Paper 2015-10 André Binette, Daniel de Munnik, Julie Melanson In light of the fact that Canada was continuing to lose market share in the United States, Binette, de Munnik and Gouin-Bonenfant (2014) studied 31 Canadian non-energy export (NEX) categories to assess their individual performance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F4, F43
Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices: Theory and Recent Evidence Staff Discussion Paper 2015-9 Laurence Savoie-Chabot, Mikael Khan In an open economy such as Canada’s, exchange rate movements can have a material impact on consumer prices. This is particularly important in the current context, with the significant depreciation of the Canadian dollar vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar since late 2012. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, F, F3, F31
Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Currency of Invoicing and Market Share Staff Working Paper 2015-31 Michael Devereux, Wei Dong, Ben Tomlin This paper investigates the impact of market structure on the joint determination of exchange rate pass-through and currency of invoicing in international trade. A novel feature of the study is the focus on market share of firms on both sides of the market—that is, exporting firms and importing firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): F, F3, F4