What Fed Funds Futures Tell Us About Monetary Policy Uncertainty Staff Working Paper 2016-61 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine The uncertainty around future changes to the Federal Reserve target rate varies over time. In our results, the main driver of uncertainty is a “path” factor signaling information about future policy actions, which is filtered from federal funds futures data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E47, G, G1, G12, G13
Equity Option-Implied Probability of Default and Equity Recovery Rate Staff Working Paper 2016-58 Bo Young Chang, Greg Orosi There is a close link between prices of equity options and the default probability of a firm. We show that in the presence of positive expected equity recovery, standard methods that assume zero equity recovery at default misestimate the option-implied default probability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G13, G3, G33
On the Value of Virtual Currencies Staff Working Paper 2016-42 Wilko Bolt, Maarten van Oordt This paper develops an economic framework to analyze the exchange rate of virtual currency. Three components are important: first, the current use of virtual currency to make payments; second, the decision of forward-looking investors to buy virtual currency (thereby effectively regulating its supply); and third, the elements that jointly drive future consumer adoption and merchant acceptance of virtual currency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Digital currencies and fintech, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, F, F3, F31, G, G1
Time-Varying Crash Risk: The Role of Stock Market Liquidity Staff Working Paper 2016-35 Peter Christoffersen, Bruno Feunou, Yoontae Jeon, Chayawat Ornthanalai We estimate a continuous-time model with stochastic volatility and dynamic crash probability for the S&P 500 index and find that market illiquidity dominates other factors in explaining the stock market crash risk. While the crash probability is time-varying, its dynamic depends only weakly on return variance once we include market illiquidity as an economic variable in the model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G12
Global Macro Risks in Currency Excess Returns Staff Working Paper 2016-32 Kimberly Berg, Nelson C. Mark We study a cross section of carry-trade-generated currency excess returns in terms of their exposure to global fundamental macroeconomic risk. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12
Tractable Term Structure Models Staff Working Paper 2015-46 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Anh Le, Christian Lundblad We introduce a new framework that facilitates term structure modeling with both positive interest rates and flexible time-series dynamics but that is also tractable, meaning amenable to quick and robust estimation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Interest rates, International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12
December 8, 2015 Prudent Preparation: The Evolution of Unconventional Monetary Policies Remarks Stephen S. Poloz The Empire Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario Governor Poloz speaks about the Bank’s updated framework for unconventional monetary policies. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Central bank research, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation, Recent economic and financial developments
Option Valuation with Observable Volatility and Jump Dynamics Staff Working Paper 2015-39 Peter Christoffersen, Bruno Feunou, Yoontae Jeon Under very general conditions, the total quadratic variation of a jump-diffusion process can be decomposed into diffusive volatility and squared jump variation. We use this result to develop a new option valuation model in which the underlying asset price exhibits volatility and jump intensity dynamics. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12
Downside Variance Risk Premium Staff Working Paper 2015-36 Bruno Feunou, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Cédric Okou We decompose the variance risk premium into upside and downside variance risk premia. These components reflect market compensation for changes in good and bad uncertainties. Their difference is a measure of the skewness risk premium (SRP), which captures asymmetric views on favorable versus undesirable risks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12
On the Welfare Cost of Rare Housing Disasters Staff Working Paper 2015-26 Shaofeng Xu This paper examines the welfare cost of rare housing disasters characterized by large drops in house prices. I construct an overlapping generations general equilibrium model with recursive preferences and housing disaster shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Economic models, Housing JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E44, G, G1, G11, R, R2, R21