MSTest: An R-Package for Testing Markov Switching Models Staff working paper 2026-7 Gabriel Rodriguez Rondon, Jean-Marie Dufour We present the R package MSTest, which implements hypothesis testing procedures to determine the number of regimes in Markov switching models. The package provides several testing frameworks, including Monte Carlo likelihood ratio tests, moment-based tests, parameter stability tests, and classical likelihood ratio procedures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C15, C18, C6, C63, C8, C87 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Do Monetary Policy Shocks Affect the Neutral Rate of Interest? Staff working paper 2026-6 Danilo Leiva-Leon, Rodrigo Sekkel, Luis Uzeda Can monetary policy influence the neutral real interest rate (r-star)? Using a new statistical model, we show that interest rate hikes tend to lower r-star and long-run growth, but that monetary policy explains only a small share of the long-run decline in r-star. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C51, E, E3, E32, E4, E44 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
March 4, 2026 Fireside Chat: Tiff Macklem, Governor Global Risk Institute Toronto, ON Content Type(s): Upcoming events
I Am So Tired! I Don’t Know What to Do! Survey Fatigue and Financial Literacy: Results from a Randomized Experiment Staff working paper 2026-5 Anna Chernesky, Kim Huynh, Marcel Voia We use a randomization of question placement in surveys to estimate the causal effect on financial literacy results. We find that financial literacy questions placed at the end of a survey lead to a drop in financial literacy of 5%–15%. This research suggests a measure of financial literacy adapted for survey length. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, C83, D, D1, D12, G, G5, G53 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
March 4, 2026 Fireside chat with Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada On Wednesday, March 4, 2026, Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, will participate in a fireside chat at an event hosted by the Global Risk Institute (GRI). Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
March 4, 2026 Bank of Canada to join the Canadian Collateral Management Service for its repo operations The Bank of Canada announced today that it will join the Canadian Collateral Management Service (CCMS) tri-party platform for its domestic repo operations by early 2027. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices
March 4, 2026 New players, old risks: Financial stability in a changing landscape Remarks Tiff Macklem Global Risk Institute (GRI) Toronto, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how risks to financial stability are shifting as hedge funds and private credit play a growing role in global debt markets. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability
March 4, 2026 Identifying pressure points in a changing financial system Speech summary Tiff Macklem Global Risk Institute (GRI) Toronto, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how risks to financial stability are shifting as hedge funds and private credit play a growing role in global debt markets. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability
How Do Some Lower-Income Canadians Pay Staff analytical paper 2026-6 Jerry Buckland, Christopher Henry, Wendy Nur, Aidan Romanow-Bear, Stephen Wild Previous research suggests that lower-income Canadians may have unique experiences with the use of payments, including the use of cash and digital payments. We conduct a case study using data from [the Canadian Financial Diaries project/Canadian financial diaries] to gain insight into how some lower-income Canadians pay. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E41 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Retail payments