Understanding Firms’ Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey Staff Working Paper 2016-7 Simon Richards, Matthieu Verstraete Inflation expectations are a key determinant of actual and future inflation and thus matter for the conduct of monetary policy. We study how firms form their inflation expectations using quarterly firm-level data from the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey, spanning the 2001 to 2015 period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Econometric and statistical methods, Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C1, C2, C25, D, D2, D21, D8, D84, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58
What Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment? Staff Discussion Paper 2016-5 Maxime Leboeuf, Robert Fay The recovery in private business investment globally remains extremely weak more than seven years after the financial crisis. This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the factors behind this weakness by analyzing the role of growth prospects and uncertainty in explaining developments in non-residential private business investment in large advanced economies since the crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, C3, C33, D, D2, D24, D8, D80, D84, E, E2, E22, F, F0, F01, G, G3, G31
A New Data Set of Quarterly Total Factor Productivity in the Canadian Business Sector Staff Working Paper 2015-6 Shutao Cao, Sharon Kozicki In this paper, a quarterly growth-accounting data set is built for the Canadian business sector with the top-down approach of Diewert and Yu (2012). Inputs and outputs are measured and used to estimate the quarterly total factor productivity (TFP). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, F, F4, F43, O, O4, O47
November 13, 2014 Firm Strategy, Competitiveness and Productivity: The Case for Canada Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2014 Lori Rennison, Farid Novin, Matthieu Verstraete At a time when the Bank is expecting a rotation of demand toward exports and investment, and transformative global trends are placing increasing emphasis on innovation, technology and organizational learning, an understanding of the competitiveness strategies of Canadian firms and the factors affecting them has become particularly relevant. This article summarizes findings from a Bank of Canada survey of 151 firms designed to extract signals on elements of firm strategy and organizational capital in order to help inform the macroeconomic outlook. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D23, D24, E, E2, E22, F, F2, F20, L, L1, L10, L2, L20, M, M1, M10, O, O3, O31, O4, O47
Stability versus Flexibility: The Role of Temporary Employment in Labour Adjustment Staff Working Paper 2010-27 Shutao Cao, Danny Leung In Canada, temporary workers account for 14 per cent of jobs in the non-farm business sector, are present in a range of industries, and account for 40 per cent of the total job reallocation. Yet most models of job reallocation abstract from temporary workers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, J, J3, J32
The Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Heterogeneous Plants: A Quantile Regression Analysis Staff Working Paper 2010-25 Ben Tomlin, Loretta Fung In this paper, we examine how the effect of movements in the real exchange rate on manufacturing plants depends on the plant's placement within the productivity distribution. Appreciations of the local currency expose domestic plants to more competition from abroad as export opportunities shrink and import competition intensifies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Market structure and pricing, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D21, F, F1, L, L1, L16, L6, L60
Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Plant Turnover and Productivity Staff Working Paper 2010-18 Ben Tomlin In a small open economy fluctuations in the real exchange rate can affect plant turnover, and thus aggregate productivity, by altering the makeup of plants that populate the market. An appreciation of the local currency increases the level of competition in the domestic market as import competition intensifies and export opportunities shrink, forcing less productive plants from the market and compelling new entrants to be more competitive than they otherwise would have been. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Market structure and pricing, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D21, D24, L, L1, L11
Labour Reallocation, Relative Prices and Productivity Staff Working Paper 2010-2 Shutao Cao, Danny Leung This paper documents the rate at which labour flows between industries and between firms within industries using the most recent data available. It examines the determinants of these flows and their relationship with the productivity growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D23, E, E3, E32, J, J6
Understanding Productivity: A Review of Recent Technical Research Staff Discussion Paper 2008-3 Richard Dion, Robert Fay The authors provide an extensive review of the rapidly expanding research on productivity, both at the macro and micro levels. They focus primarily on papers written about Canada, but also draw on selected studies from other countries, especially the United States, where such work sheds important light on particular aspects of productivity growth. The authors […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, O, O3, O31, O4, O40, O47
What Affects MFP in the Long-Run? Evidence from Canadian Industries Staff Working Paper 2008-4 Danny Leung, Yi Zheng In this paper we explore variables that may have an impact on multifactor productivity (MFP) in the long-run using the KLEMS database for Canada. We estimate a dynamic heterogeneous panel error-correction model of twelve 2-digit level industries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, D, D2, D24, O, O3, O30