August 15, 2013 The Accuracy of Short-Term Forecast Combinations Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2013 Eleonora Granziera, Corinne Luu, Pierre St-Amant This article examines whether combining forecasts of real GDP from different models can improve forecast accuracy and considers which model-combination methods provide the best performance. In line with previous literature, the authors find that combining forecasts generally improves forecast accuracy relative to various benchmarks. Unlike several previous studies, however, they find that, rather than assigning equal weights to each model, unequal weighting based on the past forecast performance of models tends to improve accuracy when forecasts across models are substantially different. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, C53, E, E3, E37
August 15, 2013 Monitoring Short-Term Economic Developments in Foreign Economies Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2013 Russell Barnett, Pierre Guérin The Bank of Canada uses several short-term forecasting models for the monitoring of key foreign economies - the United States, the euro area, Japan and China. The design of the forecasting models used for each region is influenced by the level of detail required, as well as the timeliness and volatility of data. Forecasts from different models are typically combined to mitigate model uncertainty, and judgment is applied to the model forecasts to incorporate information that is not directly reflected in the most recent indicators. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37
August 15, 2013 Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2013 This special issue discusses tools used at Bank of Canada to conduct current analysis - the collection and analysis of a broad spectrum of information to form a view of current economic activity. This analysis is a key input into the Bank’s monetary policy decision-making process. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
August 15, 2013 Big Data Analysis: The Next Frontier Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2013 Nii Ayi Armah The formulation of monetary policy at the Bank of Canada relies on the analysis of a broad set of economic information. Greater availability of immediate and detailed information would improve real-time economic decision making. Technological advances have provided an opportunity to exploit “big data” - the vast amount of digital data from business transactions, social media and networked computers. Big data can be a complement to traditional information sources, offering fresh insight for the monitoring of economic activity and inflation. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C6, C63, C8, C80
August 9, 2013 Weekly Financial Statistics - 9 August 2013 Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Weekly Financial Statistics
August 2, 2013 Weekly Financial Statistics - 2 August 2013 Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Weekly Financial Statistics
July 30, 2013 Research Update - July 2013 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
July 26, 2013 Weekly Financial Statistics - 26 July 2013 Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Weekly Financial Statistics
July 25, 2013 Banking and Financial Statistics - July 2013 Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Banking and Financial Statistics
Is There a Quality Bias in the Canadian CPI? Evidence from Micro Data Staff Working Paper 2013-24 Oleksiy Kryvtsov Rising consumer prices may reflect shifts by consumers to new higher-priced products, mostly for durable and semi-durable goods. I apply Bils’ (2009) methodology to newly available Canadian consumer price data for non-shelter goods and services to estimate how price increases can be divided between quality growth and price inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, M, M1, M11, O, O4, O47