Labor Demand Response to Labor Supply Incentives: Lessons from the German Mini-Job Reform Staff Working Paper 2021-15 Gabriela Galassi How do firms change their employment decisions when tax benefits for low-earning workers are expanded? Some firms increase employment overall, whereas others replace high-earning workers with low-earning workers, according to German linked employer-employee data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Firm dynamics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E6, E64, H, H2, H20, H24, H3, H32, I, I3, I38, J, J2, J23, J3, J38
A Reference Guide for the Business Outlook Survey Staff Discussion Paper 2020-15 David Amirault, Naveen Rai, Laurent Martin The Business Outlook Survey (BOS) has become an important part of monetary policy deliberations at the Bank of Canada and is also well known in Canadian policy and financial circles. This paper compiles more than 20 years of experience conducting the BOS and serves as a comprehensive reference manual. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32
November 12, 2020 Helping the economy after the COVID‑19 pandemic Speech summary Carolyn A. Wilkins Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy Toronto, Ontario The pandemic won’t last forever. Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins talks about what the economy will need once we’re past the COVID-19 crisis. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Climate change, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Debt management, Digital currencies and fintech, Expectations, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Firm dynamics, Fiscal policy, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework, Payment clearing and settlement systems, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
November 12, 2020 Exploring life after COVID-19: the far side of the moon Remarks (delivered virtually) Carolyn A. Wilkins Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy Toronto, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses what the economy will need once we’re past the COVID-19 crisis. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Climate change, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Debt management, Digital currencies and fintech, Expectations, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Firm dynamics, Fiscal policy, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework, Payment clearing and settlement systems, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
Corporate investment and monetary policy transmission in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2020-26 Min Jae Kim, Jonathan Witmer Unexpected changes in interest rates lead small firms to materially change their investment rate. Large firms, in contrast, show a smaller response. This suggests both that financial conditions are an important channel for transmitting monetary policy and that firm characteristics can help us better understand fluctuations in business investment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D9, D92, G, G3, G31, G32
The Canadian corporate investment gap Staff Analytical Note 2020-19 Chris D'Souza, Timothy Grieder, Daniel Hyun, Jonathan Witmer Business investment has been lower than expected in Canada and abroad since the financial crisis of 2007–09. This corporate investment gap is mirrored in firms’ other financing decisions, as they have increased cash holdings and dividend payments and decreased issuance of debt and equity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D9, D92, G, G3, G31, G32
June 18, 2020 Spending patterns in a pandemic Speech summary Lawrence L. Schembri Greater Saskatoon Chamber of Commerce Saskatoon, Saskatchewan Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri explains how household spending has changed because of COVID-19 and discusses why the Bank expects the recovery to have two phases. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Financial institutions, Financial services, Financial stability, Firm dynamics, Fiscal policy, Housing, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments, Service sector
June 18, 2020 Living with limits: household behaviour in Canada in the time of COVID-19 Remarks (delivered virtually) Lawrence L. Schembri Greater Saskatoon Chamber of Commerce Saskatoon, Saskatchewan Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri explains how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected household spending and economic activity, and discusses what the recovery is expected to look like. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Financial institutions, Financial services, Financial stability, Firm dynamics, Fiscal policy, Housing, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments, Service sector
Identifying Aggregate Shocks with Micro-level Heterogeneity: Financial Shocks and Investment Fluctuation Staff Working Paper 2020-17 Xing Guo This paper identifies aggregate financial shocks and quantifies their effects on business investment based on an estimated DSGE model with firm-level heterogeneity. On average, financial shocks contribute only 3% of the variation in U.S. public firms’ aggregate investment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E22, G, G3, G31, G32
Welfare Analysis of Equilibria With and Without Early Termination Fees in the US Wireless Industry Staff Working Paper 2020-9 Joseph Cullen, Nicolas Schutz, Oleksandr Shcherbakov The elimination of long-term contracts and early termination fees (ETFs) in the US wireless industry at the end of 2015 increased monthly service fees by 2 to 5 percent. Nevertheless, consumers are clearly better off without ETFs. While firms’ revenues from ETFs vanish, their profits from monthly fees increase. As a result, the overall effect on producer profits is less clear. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Firm dynamics, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, L, L1, L15, L9, L96