A Semiparametric Early Warning Model of Financial Stress Events Staff Working Paper 2013-13 Ian Christensen, Fuchun Li The authors use the Financial Stress Index created by the International Monetary Fund to predict the likelihood of financial stress events for five developed countries: Canada, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, G, G0, G01, G1, G17
Jump-Diffusion Long-Run Risks Models, Variance Risk Premium and Volatility Dynamics Staff Working Paper 2013-12 Jianjian Jin This paper calibrates a class of jump-diffusion long-run risks (LRR) models to quantify how well they can jointly explain the equity risk premium and the variance risk premium in the U.S. financial markets, and whether they can generate realistic dynamics of risk-neutral and realized volatilities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Economic models JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G17
A New Linear Estimator for Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models Staff Working Paper 2013-10 Antonio Diez de los Rios This paper proposes a novel regression-based approach to the estimation of Gaussian dynamic term structure models that avoids numerical optimization. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, E, E4, E43, G, G1, G12
An Equilibrium Analysis of the Rise in House Prices and Mortgage Debt Staff Working Paper 2013-9 Shaofeng Xu This paper examines the contributions of population aging, mortgage innovation and historically low interest rates to the sharp rise in U.S. house prices and mortgage debt between 1994 and 2005. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E44, G, G1, G11, R, R2, R21
Countercyclical Bank Capital Requirement and Optimized Monetary Policy Rules Staff Working Paper 2013-8 Carlos De Resende, Ali Dib, René Lalonde, Nikita Perevalov Using BoC-GEM-Fin, a large-scale DSGE model with real, nominal and financial frictions featuring a banking sector, we explore the macroeconomic implications of various types of countercyclical bank capital regulations. Results suggest that countercyclical capital requirements have a significant stabilizing effect on key macroeconomic variables, but mostly after financial shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, E5, G, G1, G2
To Link or Not To Link? Netting and Exposures Between Central Counterparties Staff Working Paper 2013-6 Stacey Anderson, Jean-Philippe Dion, Héctor Pérez Saiz This paper provides a framework to compare linked and unlinked CCP configurations in terms of total netting achieved by market participants and the total system default exposures that exist between participants and CCPs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G1, G18, G2, G23
Méthodologie de construction de séries de taux de défaut pour l’industrie canadienne Staff Discussion Paper 2013-2 Ramdane Djoudad, Étienne Bordeleau Default rates are series commonly used in stress testing. In Canada, as in many other countries, there are no historical series available for sectoral default rates on bank loans to firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C18, G, G2, G21, G3, G33
February 21, 2013 Conference Summary: Financial Intermediation and Vulnerabilities Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2012-2013 Jason Allen, James Chapman, Ian Christensen The Bank of Canada’s annual economic conference, held in October 2012, brought together experts from across Canada and around the world to discuss key issues concerning financial intermediation and vulnerabilities. The conference covered such topics as household finances and their relationship to financial stability, as well as bank regulation, securitization and shadow banking. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G2
Financial Crisis Resolution Staff Working Paper 2012-42 Josef Schroth This paper studies a dynamic version of the Holmstrom-Tirole model of intermediated finance. I show that competitive equilibria are not constrained efficient when the economy experiences a financial crisis. A pecuniary externality entails that banks’ desire to accumulate capital over time aggravates the scarcity of informed capital during the financial crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): D, D5, D53, E, E6, E60, G, G0, G01, G1, G10, G18
Estimating the Policy Rule from Money Market Rates when Target Rate Changes Are Lumpy Staff Working Paper 2012-41 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine Most central banks effect changes to their target or policy rate in discrete increments (e.g., multiples of 0.25%) following public announcements on scheduled dates. Still, for most applications, researchers rely on the assumption that the policy rate changes linearly with economic conditions and they do not distinguish between dates with and without scheduled announcements. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E47, G, G1, G12, G13