What Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment? Staff Discussion Paper 2016-5 Maxime Leboeuf, Robert Fay The recovery in private business investment globally remains extremely weak more than seven years after the financial crisis. This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the factors behind this weakness by analyzing the role of growth prospects and uncertainty in explaining developments in non-residential private business investment in large advanced economies since the crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, C3, C33, D, D2, D24, D8, D80, D84, E, E2, E22, F, F0, F01, G, G3, G31
Limits to Arbitrage and Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity Staff Discussion Paper 2016-4 James Pinnington, Maral Shamloo We document an increase in deviations from short-term covered interest rate parity (CIP) in the first half of 2015. Since the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) decision to abandon its minimum exchange rate policy, both the magnitude and volatility of deviations from CIP have increased across several currency pairs. The effect is particularly pronounced for pairs involving the Swiss franc. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15
December 15, 2015 Residential Mortgage Securitization in Canada: A Review Financial System Review - December 2015 Adi Mordel Residential mortgage securitization plays an important role in the Canadian system of housing finance, especially given the rising share of government-supported (i.e., public) securitization over the past 15 years. Mordel and Stephens analyze the evolution of two types of mortgage securitization in Canada— private and public — focusing in particular on the underlying public policy and economic benefits of the latter. They review the potential implications of the extent of public securitization and conclude with a discussion of policies that could be considered to reinvigorate private securitization in Canada. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing JEL Code(s): G, G2, G28
Tractable Term Structure Models Staff Working Paper 2015-46 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Anh Le, Christian Lundblad We introduce a new framework that facilitates term structure modeling with both positive interest rates and flexible time-series dynamics but that is also tractable, meaning amenable to quick and robust estimation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Interest rates, International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12
Emergency Liquidity Facilities, Signalling and Funding Costs Staff Working Paper 2015-44 Céline Gauthier, Alfred Lehar, Héctor Pérez Saiz, Moez Souissi In the months preceding the failure of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, banks were willing to pay a premium over the Federal Reserve’s discount window (DW) rate to participate in the much less flexible Term Auction Facility (TAF). We empirically test the predictions of a new signalling model that offers a rationale for offering two different liquidity facilities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Lender of last resort JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28
Speculators, Prices and Market Volatility Staff Working Paper 2015-42 Celso Brunetti, Bahattin Buyuksahin, Jeffrey H. Harris We analyze data from 2005 through 2009 that uniquely identify categories of traders to assess how speculators such as hedge funds and swap dealers relate to volatility and price changes. Examining various subperiods where price trends are strong, we find little evidence that speculators destabilize financial markets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C3, G, G1
November 19, 2015 The Effect of Regulatory Changes on Monetary Policy Implementation Frameworks Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2015 Meyer Aaron, Annick Demers, Sean Durr This article provides an analysis of some recent banking regulatory initiatives that are likely to influence the activities of financial intermediaries and the effectiveness of central bank monetary policy implementation frameworks. Although the effects of individual regulations can be anticipated in most cases, the combined regulatory impact is not yet clear. Central banks should, however, be able to accommodate the effects of the emerging regulatory environment within their existing policy implementation frameworks. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, G, G2, G21, L, L5, L50
November 19, 2015 Recent Enhancements to the Management of Canada’s Foreign Exchange Reserves Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2015 Mervin Merkowsky, Eric Wolfe As the size and complexity of the foreign exchange reserves have grown over the years, enhancements to the management framework needed to keep pace. This is a common theme for most reserve managers around the world. In Canada, the enhancements focused on governance, portfolio management, risk measurement and risk management. This article briefly describes these enhancements, why they were implemented and some of the lessons learned along the way. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Foreign reserves management, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, F, F3, F31, G, G1
Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Cross-Country Evidence Staff Working Paper 2015-41 Christian Friedrich, Kristina Hess, Rose Cunningham Central banks may face challenges in achieving their price stability goals when financial stability risks are present. There is, however, considerable heterogeneity among central banks with respect to how they manage these potential trade-offs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability, International topics, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5, G, G0, G01
Credit Conditions and Consumption, House Prices and Debt: What Makes Canada Different? Staff Working Paper 2015-40 John Muellbauer, Pierre St-Amant, David Williams There is widespread agreement that, in the United States, higher house prices raise consumption via collateral or possibly wealth effects. The presence of similar channels in Canada would have important implications for monetary policy transmission. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E2, E21, E4, E44, G, G2, G21, R, R2, R21, R3, R31