June 10, 2021 Going digital has helped the economy through COVID-19 Speech summary Timothy Lane Western Canadian Chapters of Advocis Edmonton, Alberta, Vancouver, British Columbia, Winnipeg, Manitoba Deputy Governor Timothy Lane talks about the Bank’s decision yesterday to leave the policy rate unchanged. He also discusses how adopting digital technologies supported resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
June 10, 2021 The digital transformation and Canada’s economic resilience Remarks (delivered virtually) Timothy Lane Advocis Western Canada Chapters Edmonton, Alberta, Vancouver, British Columbia, Winnipeg, Manitoba Deputy Governor Tim Lane talks about the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and discusses how the digital transformation has supported resilience through the pandemic and may be adding to the economy’s growth potential. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
Overlooking the online world: Does mismeasurement of the digital economy explain the productivity slowdown? Staff Analytical Note 2021-10 Alejandra Bellatin, Stephanie Houle Since the mid-2000s, labour productivity has slowed down in Canada despite enormous technological advances that were expected to improve it. This note investigates whether mismeasurement of the digital economy can explain this paradox. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E0, E01, L, L8, L86, O, O3, O33, O4, O5, O51
Four Decades of Canadian Earnings Inequality and Dynamics Across Workers and Firms Staff Working Paper 2021-20 Audra Bowlus, Émilien Gouin-Bonenfant, Huju Liu, Lance Lochner, Youngmin Park We use four decades of Canadian matched employer-employee data to explore how inequality and the dynamics of individual earnings have evolved over time in Canada. We also examine how the earnings growth of individuals is related to the growth of their employers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Firm dynamics, Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D3, D31, E, E2, E24, J, J2, J24, J3, J31, J6, J63
Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2021 update Staff Analytical Note 2021-6 Dany Brouillette, Guyllaume Faucher, Martin Kuncl, Austin McWhirter, Youngmin Park We expect potential output growth to be higher than in the October 2020 reassessment. By 2024, growth will be slightly above its average growth from 2010 to 2019. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate continues to lie in the range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, E24, E3, E37, E4, E43, E5, E52
Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2021 Staff Analytical Note 2021-5 Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, Ali Jaffery, Christopher Hajzler, Jonathan Lachaine, Peter Shannon, Subrata Sarker, Graeme Westwood, Beiling Yan We expect global potential output growth to rise to 3 percent by 2022. Relative to the last assessment in October 2020, potential output growth has been revised up across all the regions. The range of the US neutral rate remains unchanged relative to the autumn 2020 assessment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4
Trade and Market Power in Product and Labor Markets Staff Working Paper 2021-17 Gaelan MacKenzie Trade liberalizations increase the sales and input purchases of productive firms relative to their less productive domestic competitors. This reallocation affects firms’ market power in their product and input markets. I quantify how the labour market power of employers affects the distribution and size of the gains from trade. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets, Market structure and pricing, Productivity, Trade integration JEL Code(s): D, D4, D43, F, F1, F12, F6, J, L, L1, L13
Allocative Efficiency and the Productivity Slowdown Staff Working Paper 2021-1 Lin Shao, Rongsheng Tang In our analysis of the US productivity slowdown in the 1970s and 2000s, we find that a significant portion of this deceleration can be attributed to a lack of improvement in allocative efficiency across sectors. Our analysis further identifies increased sector-level volatility as a major contributor to this lack of improvement in allocative efficiency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, O, O4, O47
December 15, 2020 Strengthening our exports Speech summary Tiff Macklem Greater Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia Governor Tiff Macklem talks about the importance of trade and exports to Canada’s economic recovery. He also talks about steps policy-makers and business can take to attract investment and improve competitiveness. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Monetary policy, Productivity, Service sector, Trade integration
December 15, 2020 Trading for a sustainable recovery Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem Greater Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia Governor Tiff Macklem talks about how important trade is for the economic recovery. He discusses what policymakers and business leaders can do to encourage growth in trade. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Monetary policy, Productivity, Service sector, Trade integration