Labor Market Policies During an Epidemic Staff Working Paper 2020-54 Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan, Kurt See We study the labour market and welfare effects of expanding unemployment insurance benefits and introducing payroll subsidies during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that both policies are complementary and are beneficial to different types of workers. Payroll subsidies preserve the employment of workers in highly productive jobs, while unemployment insurance replaces lost income for workers who experience inevitable job loss. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Fiscal policy, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E6, E62, J, J6, J64
November 12, 2020 Helping the economy after the COVID‑19 pandemic Speech summary Carolyn A. Wilkins Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy Toronto, Ontario The pandemic won’t last forever. Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins talks about what the economy will need once we’re past the COVID-19 crisis. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Climate change, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Debt management, Digital currencies and fintech, Expectations, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Firm dynamics, Fiscal policy, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework, Payment clearing and settlement systems, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
November 12, 2020 Exploring life after COVID-19: the far side of the moon Remarks (delivered virtually) Carolyn A. Wilkins Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy Toronto, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses what the economy will need once we’re past the COVID-19 crisis. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Climate change, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Debt management, Digital currencies and fintech, Expectations, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Firm dynamics, Fiscal policy, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework, Payment clearing and settlement systems, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
How Should Unemployment Insurance Vary over the Business Cycle? Staff Working Paper 2020-47 Serdar Birinci, Kurt See Should unemployment benefits be more generous during economic downturns? The optimal amount and duration of benefit payments ultimately depend on the demographic and wealth characteristics of benefit recipients. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Fiscal policy, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32, J, J6, J64, J65
Child Skill Production: Accounting for Parental and Market-Based Time and Goods Investments Staff Working Paper 2020-36 Elizabeth Caucutt, Lance Lochner, Joseph Mullins, Youngmin Park Can daycare replace parents’ time spent with children? We explore this by using data on how parents spend time and money on children and how this spending is related to their child’s development. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D1, D13, H, H3, H31, J, J2, J22, J24
June 18, 2020 Spending patterns in a pandemic Speech summary Lawrence L. Schembri Greater Saskatoon Chamber of Commerce Saskatoon, Saskatchewan Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri explains how household spending has changed because of COVID-19 and discusses why the Bank expects the recovery to have two phases. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Financial institutions, Financial services, Financial stability, Firm dynamics, Fiscal policy, Housing, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments, Service sector
June 18, 2020 Living with limits: household behaviour in Canada in the time of COVID-19 Remarks (delivered virtually) Lawrence L. Schembri Greater Saskatoon Chamber of Commerce Saskatoon, Saskatchewan Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri explains how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected household spending and economic activity, and discusses what the recovery is expected to look like. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Financial institutions, Financial services, Financial stability, Firm dynamics, Fiscal policy, Housing, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments, Service sector
Household indebtedness risks in the wake of COVID‑19 Staff Analytical Note 2020-8 Olga Bilyk, Anson T. Y. Ho, Mikael Khan, Geneviève Vallée COVID-19 presents challenges for indebted households. We assess these by drawing parallels between pandemics and natural disasters. Taking into account the financial health of the household sector when the pandemic began, we run model simulations to illustrate how payment deferrals and the labour market recovery will affect mortgage defaults. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Climate change, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Fiscal policy, Housing, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, D, D1, D12, D14, E, E2, E24, E27, E6, E62, G, G2, G21, G28, R, R2
May 20, 2020 Decisive actions in difficult times Speech summary Timothy Lane CFA Society Winnipeg and the Manitoba Association for Business Economics Winnipeg, Manitoba Deputy Governor Timothy Lane talks about the Bank’s decisive actions in response to COVID-19, and how these will help Canadians now and in the future. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credit and credit aggregates, Credit risk management, Domestic demand and components, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial services, Financial stability, Fiscal policy, Housing, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, International financial markets, Labour markets, Lender of last resort, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments, Service sector, Trade integration
May 20, 2020 Policies for the Great Global Shutdown and Beyond Remarks (delivered virtually) Timothy Lane CFA Society Winnipeg and Manitoba Association for Business Economics Winnipeg, Manitoba Deputy Governor Timothy Lane explains how the Bank is helping Canadian households and businesses weather the COVID-19 crisis, and how our actions today are laying a solid foundation for our future economic recovery. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credit and credit aggregates, Credit risk management, Domestic demand and components, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial services, Financial stability, Fiscal policy, Housing, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, International financial markets, Labour markets, Lender of last resort, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments, Service sector, Trade integration