Unpacking interest rate uncertainty in 2025 Staff analytical paper 2026-25 Harshbir Kaur, Rishi Vala Amid heightened Canada–US trade tensions in 2025, financial markets showed signs that investors had greater difficulty anticipating near-term Bank of Canada interest rate decisions. We look at the Overnight Index Swap prices and intraday Government of Canada yields to identify the main driver of uncertainty around interest rate decisions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, D, D5, D53, E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Deglobalization and Trade Fragmentation: Implications for the Inflation-Output Trade-Off Staff analytical paper 2026-24 Matteo Cacciatore, Daniela Hauser, Yuko Imura How do deglobalization and rising trade costs affect monetary policy? A two-country, multi-sector model of Canada and the United States shows that bilateral trade-cost shocks generate a manageable inflation–output trade-off under the existing framework — but larger or more persistent shocks would make look-through policies costlier and riskier. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): D, D5, D57, E, E5, E52, E58, F, F1, F13, F4, F41, F6, F62 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Recent Evidence on the Resiliency of Flexible Inflation Targeting Staff analytical paper 2026-23 Edoardo Briganti, Wei Dong, Olena Kostyshyna, Soyoung Lee, Florent Samson, Rodrigo Sekkel This paper assesses the resilience of flexible inflation targeting in the presence of large and persistent supply shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
June 10, 2026 Change to the Government of Canada Bond Auction Schedule Due to a public holiday, the 10-year Government of Canada bond auction originally scheduled for Wednesday, June 24, 2026, has been moved to Monday, June 22, 2026. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices
June 10, 2026 Bank of Canada maintains the policy rate at 2¼% Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
June 10, 2026 Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement On Wednesday, June 10, 2026, the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on the target for the overnight rate. A press release will provide a brief explanation of the decision. Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
June 10, 2026 Interest Rate Announcement 09:45 (ET) On eight scheduled dates each year, the Bank of Canada announces the setting for the overnight rate target in a press release explaining the factors behind the decision. Content Type(s): Upcoming events
June 10, 2026 Monetary Policy Decision Press Conference Opening Statement Opening statement Tiff Macklem Ottawa, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the monetary policy decision. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements