Measuring Vulnerabilities in the Non-Financial Corporate Sector Using Industry- and Firm-Level Data Staff Analytical Note 2018-17 Timothy Grieder, Michal Lipsitz Aggregate non-financial corporate debt-to-GDP has been growing rapidly in recent years and is at an all-time high. This growth began in 2011 and accelerated as the oil price shock affected the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G3, G32
How to Manage Macroeconomic and Financial Stability Risks: A New Framework Staff Analytical Note 2018-11 Alexander Ueberfeldt, Thibaut Duprey Financial system vulnerabilities increase the downside risk to future GDP growth. Macroprudential tightening significantly reduces financial stability risks associated with vulnerabilities. Monetary policy faces a trade-off between financial stability and macroeconomic risks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G0, G01
Asymmetric Risks to the Economic Outlook Arising from Financial System Vulnerabilities Staff Analytical Note 2018-6 Thibaut Duprey When financial system vulnerabilities are elevated, they can give rise to asymmetric risks to the economic outlook. To illustrate this, I consider the economic outlook presented in the Bank of Canada’s October 2017 Monetary Policy Report in the context of two key financial system vulnerabilities: high levels of household indebtedness and housing market imbalances. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C11, C15, E, E1, E17, E3, E32, E37, E4, E44, E47, E5, E58, E6, E66, G, G0, G01, G1, G18
Adverse Selection with Heterogeneously Informed Agents Staff Working Paper 2018-7 Mohammad Davoodalhosseini A model of over-the-counter markets is proposed. Some asset buyers are informed in that they can identify high quality assets. Heterogeneous sellers with private information choose what type of buyers they want to trade with. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, D40, D8, D82, D83, G, G0, G01, G1, G10, G2, G20
Who Pays? CCP Resource Provision in the Post-Pittsburgh World Staff Discussion Paper 2017-17 Jorge Cruz Lopez, Mark Manning At the Pittsburgh Summit in 2009, G20 countries announced their commitment to clear all standardized over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives through central counterparties (CCPs). Since then, CCPs have become increasingly important and there has been an extensive program of regulatory enhancements to both them and OTC derivatives markets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G28
Recent Evolution of Canada’s Credit-to-GDP Gap: Measurement and Interpretation Staff Analytical Note 2017-25 Timothy Grieder, Dylan Hogg, Thibaut Duprey Over the past several years, the Bank for International Settlements has noted that Canada’s credit-to-GDP gap has widened and is above thresholds indicating future banking stress. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): D, D1, E, E3, E32, G, G0, G01, G1, G2, G21, G3, G30
A Barometer of Canadian Financial System Vulnerabilities Staff Analytical Note 2017-24 Thibaut Duprey, Tom Roberts This note presents a composite indicator of Canadian financial system vulnerabilities—the Vulnerabilities Barometer. It aims to complement the Bank of Canada’s vulnerabilities assessment by adding a quantitative and synthesized perspective to the more granular (distributional) analysis presented in the Financial System Review. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C4, C40, D, D1, D14, E, E3, E32, E6, E66, F, F0, F01, G, G0, G01, G1, G15, G2, G21, H, H6, H63
Optimal Interbank Regulation Staff Working Paper 2017-48 Thomas J. Carter Recent years have seen renewed interest in the regulation of interbank markets. A review of the literature in this area identifies two gaps: first, the literature has tended to make ad hoc assumptions about the interbank contract space, which makes it difficult to generate convincing policy prescriptions; second, the literature has tended to focus on ex-post interventions that kick in only after an interbank disruption has come underway (e.g., open-market operations, lender-of-last-resort interventions, bail-outs), rather than ex-ante prudential policies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G20
November 16, 2017 An Initial Assessment of Changes to the Bank of Canada’s Framework for Market Operations Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2017 Kaetlynd McRae, Sean Durr, David Manzo The Bank of Canada made changes to several of the tools that make up its framework for operations and liquidity provision. These changes came about after a comprehensive re-view of the framework and are designed to help the Bank better achieve its objectives of reinforcing the target for the overnight rate and supporting the well-functioning of Cana-dian financial markets under normal market conditions. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G0, G01, G1, G18
A Counterfactual Valuation of the Stock Index as a Predictor of Crashes Staff Working Paper 2017-38 Tom Roberts Stock market fundamentals would not seem to meaningfully predict returns over a shorter-term horizon—instead, I shift focus to severe downside risk (i.e., crashes). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G17, G19