International Transmission of Quantitative Easing Policies: Evidence from Canada Staff Working Paper 2022-30 Serdar Kabaca, Kerem Tuzcuoglu This paper examines the cross-border spillovers from major economies’ quantitative easing (QE) policies to their trading partners. We concentrate on spillovers from the US to Canada during the zero lower bound period when QE policies were actively used. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F4, F41, F44
Unregulated Lending, Mortgage Regulations and Monetary Policy Staff Working Paper 2022-28 Ugochi Emenogu, Brian Peterson This paper evaluates the effectiveness of macroprudential policies when regulations are uneven across mortgage lender types. We look at credit tightening that results from macroprudential regulations and examine how much of it is counteracted by credit shifting to unregulated lenders. We also study the impact of monetary policy tightening when some lenders are unregulated. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E50, E52, E58, G, G2, G21, G23, G28
More Than Words: Fed Chairs’ Communication During Congressional Testimonies Staff Working Paper 2022-20 Michelle Alexopoulos, Xinfen Han, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Xu Zhang We measure soft information contained in the congressional testimonies of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairs and analyze its effect on financial markets. Increases in the Chair’s text-, voice-, or face-emotion indices during these testimonies generally raise stock prices and lower their volatility. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial markets, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E7, E71
Household Heterogeneity and the Performance of Monetary Policy Frameworks Staff Working Paper 2022-12 Edouard Djeutem, Mario He, Abeer Reza, Yang Zhang Consumption inequality and a low interest rate environment are two important trends in today’s economy. But the implications they may have—and how those implications interact—within different monetary policy frameworks are not well understood. We study the ranking of alternative frameworks that take these trends into account. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, D5, D52, E, E2, E21, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58
The Central Bank Strikes Back! Credibility of Monetary Policy under Fiscal Influence Staff Working Paper 2022-11 Antoine Camous, Dmitry Matveev Central banks in many advanced economies enjoy a high degree of independence, which protects monetary policy decisions from political influence. But how should independent central banks react if pressured by fiscal policy-makers? We examine whether a central bank should design a monetary policy framework that prescribes acting conditionally on how fiscal policy behaves. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credibility, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E62
Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning Staff Working Paper 2022-10 James Chapman, Ajit Desai We demonstrate the usefulness of payment systems data and machine learning models for macroeconomic predictions and provide a set of econometric tools to overcome associated challenges. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37, E4, E42, E5, E52
A Horse Race of Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes Under Bounded Rationality Staff Discussion Paper 2022-4 Joel Wagner, Tudor Schlanger, Yang Zhang We introduce bounded rationality in a canonical New Keynesian model calibrated to match Canadian macroeconomic data since Canada’s adoption of inflation targeting. We use the model to quantitatively assess the macroeconomic impact of alternative monetary policy regimes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E3, E4, E5, E52, E58
Monetary Policy and Redistribution in Open Economies Staff Working Paper 2022-6 Xing Guo, Pablo Ottonello, Diego Perez We study how different types of monetary policy shape the distributional effects of external economic shocks on households’ consumption in a small open economy. Our results present a trade-off between maintaining overall stabilization and controlling consumption inequality. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E5, E52, F, F4, F41, F44
Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy: A Thematic Review Staff Discussion Paper 2022-2 Felipe Alves, Christian Bustamante, Xing Guo, Katya Kartashova, Soyoung Lee, Thomas Michael Pugh, Kurt See, Yaz Terajima, Alexander Ueberfeldt The theory that rich economic diversity of businesses and households both affects and is shaped by economy-wide fluctuations has strong implications for monetary policy. This review places these insights in a Canadian context. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D2, D25, D3, D31, E, E2, E22, E24, E5, E50, E52
On the Wedge Between the PPI and CPI Inflation Indicators Staff Working Paper 2022-5 Shang-Jin Wei, Yinxi Xie We find that the CPI and PPI inflation indexes co-moved strongly throughout the late 20th century, but their correlation has fallen substantially since the early 2000s. We offer a structural explanation for this divergence based on the growth of global supply chains since 2000. This finding offers a unique perspective for the future design of optimal monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58, F, F1, F11, F12, F4, F41, F6, F62