Model Uncertainty and Wealth Distribution Staff Working Paper 2019-48 Edouard Djeutem, Shaofeng Xu This paper studies the implications of model uncertainty for wealth distribution in a tractable general equilibrium model with a borrowing constraint and robustness à la Hansen and Sargent (2008). Households confront model uncertainty about the process driving the return of the risky asset, and they choose robust policies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D3, D8, E, E2
Changing Fortunes: Long-Termism—G-Zero, Artificial Intelligence and Debt Staff Discussion Paper 2019-12 Stephen S. Poloz This paper discusses three long-term forces that are acting on the global economy and their implications for companies and policy-makers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial stability, International topics, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E6, E63, F, F0, F02, F1, F15, F5, F53, F6, H, O, O1, O11, O3, O33
2018 Merchant Acceptance Survey Staff Analytical Note 2019-31 Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Mitchell Nicholson In 2015, the Bank of Canada surveyed merchants and found that cash was nearly universally accepted (Fung, Huynh and Kosse 2017). Since 2015, retail payments in Canada have become increasingly digitalized, as many Canadians have adopted digital payment innovations like contactless cards and Interac e-Transfer. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, D, D2, D22, E, E4, L, L2
What Do Survey Data Tell Us About US Businesses? Staff Working Paper 2019-45 Anmol Bhandari, Serdar Birinci, Ellen McGrattan, Kurt See This paper examines the reliability of survey data on business incomes, valuations, and rates of return, which are key inputs for studies of wealth inequality and entrepreneurial choice. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, E, E2, E22, H, H2, H25
Technological Progress and Monetary Policy: Managing the Fourth Industrial Revolution Staff Discussion Paper 2019-11 Stephen S. Poloz This paper looks at the implications for monetary policy of the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning, which is sometimes called the “fourth industrial revolution.” Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial stability, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E3, O, O1, O11, O3, O33
2018 Bitcoin Omnibus Survey: Awareness and Usage Staff Discussion Paper 2019-10 Christopher Henry, Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Mitchell Nicholson The Bank of Canada continues to use the Bitcoin Omnibus Survey (BTCOS) to monitor trends in Canadians’ awareness, ownership and use of Bitcoin. The most recent iteration was conducted in late 2018, following an 85 percent decline in the price of Bitcoin throughout the year. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, E, E4, O, O5, O51
Cashless Bank Branches in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2019-29 Walter Engert, Ben Fung Cashless or tellerless bank branches have proliferated in several countries in recent years. In a cashless bank branch, teller or counter services such as cash withdrawals, deposits and cheque-cashing are not available. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E51
The Economics of Cryptocurrencies—Bitcoin and Beyond Staff Working Paper 2019-40 Jonathan Chiu, Thorsten Koeppl Since the creation of Bitcoin in 2009, over 2,000 cryptocurrencies have been issued. We evaluate how well a cryptocurrency functions as a payment system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Monetary policy, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5, L, L5
What Does Structural Analysis of the External Finance Premium Say About Financial Frictions? Staff Working Paper 2019-38 Jelena Zivanovic I use a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) with sign restrictions to provide conditional evidence on the behavior of the US external finance premium (EFP). The results indicate that the excess bond premium, a proxy for the EFP, reacts countercyclically to supply and monetary policy shocks and procyclically to demand shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44
Home Equity Extraction and Household Spending in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2019-27 Anson T. Y. Ho, Mikael Khan, Monica Mow, Brian Peterson We use rich microdata to measure home equity extraction in Canada and track its evolution over time. We find home equity extraction has been rising in recent years and has likely contributed materially to dynamics in household spending. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E2, E21, G, G2, G20