Dismiss the Gap? A Real-Time Assessment of the Usefulness of Canadian Output Gaps in Forecasting Inflation Staff Working Paper 2018-10 Lise Pichette, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, Mohanad Salameh, Pierre St-Amant We use a new real-time database for Canada to study various output gap measures. This includes recently developed measures based on models incorporating many variables as inputs (and therefore requiring real-time data for many variables). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E37
March 8, 2018 Canada’s Economic Expansion: A Progress Report Remarks Timothy Lane Greater Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia Deputy Governor Tim Lane discusses the issues that led Governing Council to hold the policy interest rate at 1.25 per cent in their March 7 decision. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
March 8, 2018 $10 Bank Note Unveil Due to poor weather and power outages in the Halifax area, today’s official unveiling event for the new $10 bank note may experience technical difficulties. Content Type(s): Press, Announcements
March 8, 2018 New $10 bank note featuring Viola Desmond unveiled on International Women’s Day Media Relations Halifax, Nova Scotia Finance Minister Bill Morneau and Bank of Canada Governor Stephen S. Poloz today unveiled the new $10 bank note featuring Viola Desmond during a ceremony at the Halifax Central Library. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
March 8, 2018 Unveiling of New $10 Note Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Halifax, Nova Scotia Governor Stephen S. Poloz joins Minister Morneau and Wanda Robson at the unveiling of Canada’s new $10 note. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Bank notes
March 7, 2018 Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 1/4 per cent Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 1/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 per cent. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
Is the Excess Bond Premium a Leading Indicator of Canadian Economic Activity? Staff Analytical Note 2018-4 Maxime Leboeuf, Daniel Hyun This note investigates whether Canadian corporate spreads and the excess bond premium (EBP) lead Canadian economic activity. Indeed, we find that corporate spreads precede changes in real gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada over the subsequent year. The EBP accounts for most of this property. Further, an unanticipated increase in the Canadian EBP forecasts a deterioration of domestic macroeconomic conditions: a 10-basis-point increase results in a fall in both GDP and consumer price index (CPI) of 0.4 per cent and 0.1 per cent, respectively, over three years. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G1, G12