Assessing Indexation-Based Calvo Inflation Models Staff Working Paper 2009-7 Jean-Marie Dufour, Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian Using identification-robust methods, the authors estimate and evaluate for Canada and the United States various classes of inflation equations based on generalized structural Calvo-type models. The models allow for different forms of frictions and vary in their assumptions regarding the type of price indexation adopted by firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C5, C52, E, E3, E31
Relative Prices, Trading Gains, and Real GDI: The Case of Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2009-4 Yi Zheng Treating imports as intermediate inputs to domestic production, the author adopts the translog function approach to model real gross domestic income (GDI) in Canada over the 1961–2006 period. She explores the role of price ratios, such as terms of trade and the real effective exchange rate, in explaining changes in real GDI, trade openness, trade […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Productivity JEL Code(s): C, C4, C43, D, D3, D33, F, F1, F10, O, O4, O47
Combining Canadian Interest-Rate Forecasts Staff Working Paper 2008-34 David Bolder, Yuliya Romanyuk Model risk is a constant danger for financial economists using interest-rate forecasts for the purposes of monetary policy analysis, portfolio allocations, or risk-management decisions. Use of multiple models does not necessarily solve the problem as it greatly increases the work required and still leaves the question "which model forecast should one use?" Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, E, E4, E43, E47
June 17, 2008 A Tool for Assessing Financial Vulnerabilities in the Household Sector Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2008 Shubhasis Dey, Ramdane Djoudad, Yaz Terajima In this article, the authors build on the framework used in the Bank of Canada's Financial System Review to assess the evolution of household indebtedness and financial vulnerabilities in response to changing economic conditions. To achieve this, they first compare two microdata sets generated by Ipsos Reid's Canadian Financial Monitor and Statistics Canada's Survey of Financial Security. They find that the surveys are broadly comparable, despite methodological differences. This enables them to use the combined information content for the identification of the threshold value of the debt-service ratio (DSR). The article then presents an innovative framework that uses household-level microdata to simulate changes in the distribution of the DSR under various stress scenarios. The authors show how this framework can be used by analyzing the effects of two different scenarios on the distribution of the debt-service ratio and the impact on vulnerable households. This tool will enable researchers to refine their analyses of current risks to the financial health of Canadian households. The article concludes with comments on future directions for refining the Bank's analyses of household sector risk. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Financial stability
Empirical Likelihood Block Bootstrapping Staff Working Paper 2008-18 Jason Allen, Allan Gregory, Katsumi Shimotsu Monte Carlo evidence has made it clear that asymptotic tests based on generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation have disappointing size. The problem is exacerbated when the moment conditions are serially correlated. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C2, C22
Markups in Canada: Have They Changed and Why? Staff Working Paper 2008-7 Danny Leung Many empirical studies have examined the cyclical nature of the markup ratio. Until recently, few have attempted to ascertain the changes in the markup over a longer time horizon. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, F, F4, F41, L, L1, L11
Default Dependence: The Equity Default Relationship Staff Working Paper 2008-1 Stuart Turnbull, Jun Yang The paper examines three equity-based structural models to study the nonlinear relationship between equity and credit default swap (CDS) prices. These models differ in the specification of the default barrier. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G13
Estimation and Inference by the Method of Projection Minimum Distance Staff Working Paper 2007-56 Òscar Jordà, Sharon Kozicki A covariance-stationary vector of variables has a Wold representation whose coefficients can be semi-parametrically estimated by local projections (Jordà, 2005). Substituting the Wold representations for variables in model expressions generates restrictions that can be used by the method of minimum distance to estimate model parameters. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C53, E, E4, E47
Testing Uncovered Interest Parity: A Continuous-Time Approach Staff Working Paper 2007-53 Antonio Diez de los Rios, Enrique Sentana Nowadays researchers can choose the sampling frequency of exchange rates and interest rates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15
Examining Simple Joint Macroeconomic and Term-Structure Models: A Practitioner's Perspective Staff Working Paper 2007-49 David Bolder, Shudan Liu The primary objective of this paper is to compare a variety of joint models of the term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C0, C6, E, E4, G, G1