Assessing and Valuing the Non-Linear Structure of Hedge Fund Returns Staff Working Paper 2006-31 Antonio Diez de los Rios, René Garcia Several studies have put forward the non-linear structure and option-like features of returns associated with hedge fund strategies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions JEL Code(s): C, C1, C5, G, G1
The Turning Black Tide: Energy Prices and the Canadian Dollar Staff Working Paper 2006-29 Ramzi Issa, Robert Lafrance, John Murray The authors revisit the relationship between energy prices and the Canadian dollar in the Amano and van Norden (1995) equation, which shows a negative relationship such that higher real energy prices lead to a depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31
Estimation of the Default Risk of Publicly Traded Canadian Companies Staff Working Paper 2006-28 Georges Dionne, Sadok Laajimi, Sofiane Mejri, Madalina Petrescu Two models of default risk are prominent in the financial literature: Merton's structural model and Altman's non-structural model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Debt management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G24, G28, G3, G33
Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates? Staff Working Paper 2006-27 Antonio Diez de los Rios The author proposes an arbitrage-free model of the joint behaviour of interest and exchange rates whose exchange rate forecasts outperform those produced by a random-walk model, a vector autoregression on the forward premiums and the rate of depreciation, and the standard forward premium regression. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15
Using Monthly Indicators to Predict Quarterly GDP Staff Working Paper 2006-26 Yi Zheng, James Rossiter The authors build a model for predicting current-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) growth using anywhere from zero to three months of indicators from that quarter. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C53
Risk-Cost Frontier and Collateral Valuation in Securities Settlement Systems for Extreme Market Events Staff Working Paper 2006-17 Alejandro García, Ramazan Gençay The authors examine how the use of extreme value theory yields collateral requirements that are robust to extreme fluctuations in the market price of the asset used as collateral. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C1, G, G0, G1
Forecasting Commodity Prices: GARCH, Jumps, and Mean Reversion Staff Working Paper 2006-14 Jean-Thomas Bernard, Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian, Sebastien McMahon Fluctuations in the prices of various natural resource products are of concern in both policy and business circles; hence, it is important to develop accurate price forecasts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, C53, E, E3, E37
The Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate: A Time-Varying Monetary Policy Priority Index for the United States Staff Working Paper 2006-11 René Lalonde, Nicolas Parent In the United States, the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of promoting stable inflation and maximum employment. Since the Fed directly controls only one instrument - the federal funds rate - the authors argue that the Fed's priorities continuously alternate between inflation and economic activity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C52, E, E5, E52
Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model with a Financial Accelerator Staff Working Paper 2006-9 Ian Christensen, Ali Dib The authors estimate a sticky-price dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with a financial accelerator, à la Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist (1999), to assess the importance of financial frictions in the amplification and propagation of the effects of transitory shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37, E4, E44
Forecasting Canadian Time Series with the New Keynesian Model Staff Working Paper 2006-4 Ali Dib, Mohamed Gammoudi, Kevin Moran The authors document the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the New Keynesian model for Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, E, E3, E32, E37