The Central Bank’s Dilemma: Look Through Supply Shocks or Control Inflation Expectations? Staff Working Paper 2022-41 Paul Beaudry, Thomas J. Carter, Amartya Lahiri When countries are hit by supply shocks, central banks often face the dilemma of either looking through such shocks or reacting to them to ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored. In this paper, we propose a tractable framework to capture this dilemma and then explore optimal policy under a range of assumptions about how expectations are formed. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E24, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58, E6, E65
How Do People View Price and Wage Inflation? Staff Working Paper 2022-34 Monica Jain, Olena Kostyshyna, Xu Zhang This paper examines household-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) to understand households’ expectations about price and wage inflation, how those expectations link to views about labour market conditions and the subsequent impact on households’ outlook for real spending growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D8, D84, E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E31
Job Ladder and Business Cycles Staff Working Paper 2022-14 Felipe Alves During downturns, workers get stuck in low-productivity jobs and wages remain stagnant. I build an heterogenous agent incomplete market model with a full job ladder that accounts for these facts. An adverse financial shock calibrated to the US Great Recession replicates the period’s slow recovery and missing disinflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, D5, D52, E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E31, E32
Household Heterogeneity and the Performance of Monetary Policy Frameworks Staff Working Paper 2022-12 Edouard Djeutem, Mario He, Abeer Reza, Yang Zhang Consumption inequality and a low interest rate environment are two important trends in today’s economy. But the implications they may have—and how those implications interact—within different monetary policy frameworks are not well understood. We study the ranking of alternative frameworks that take these trends into account. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, D5, D52, E, E2, E21, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58
The Impact of Globalization and Digitalization on the Phillips Curve Staff Working Paper 2022-7 Christian Friedrich, Peter Selcuk Globalization is in retreat, yet digitalization is on the rise. How will these trends impact inflation? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, International topics, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, F, F6
On the Wedge Between the PPI and CPI Inflation Indicators Staff Working Paper 2022-5 Shang-Jin Wei, Yinxi Xie We find that the CPI and PPI inflation indexes co-moved strongly throughout the late 20th century, but their correlation has fallen substantially since the early 2000s. We offer a structural explanation for this divergence based on the growth of global supply chains since 2000. This finding offers a unique perspective for the future design of optimal monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58, F, F1, F11, F12, F4, F41, F6, F62
What to Target? Insights from a Lab Experiment Staff Working Paper 2021-53 Isabelle Salle In a laboratory experiment, we ask participants to predict inflation using three different policy regimes: inflation targeting—with and without greater communication of the target—average inflation targeting and price level targeting. We use participants’ predictions to compare the level and stability of inflation under each regime. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E7
What Can Stockouts Tell Us About Inflation? Evidence from Online Micro Data Staff Working Paper 2021-52 Alberto Cavallo, Oleksiy Kryvtsov Did supply disruptions and cost pressures play a role in rising inflation in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic? Using data collected from websites of large retailers in multiple sectors and countries, we show that shortages may indicate transitory inflationary pressures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E3, E31, E37
Exploring the potential benefits of inflation overshooting Staff Analytical Note 2021-16 Robert Amano, Marc-André Gosselin, Kurt See After a period with the interest rate at the effective lower bound, temporarily overshooting inflation may offer important economic benefits. This may be especially true for vulnerable segments of the population, such as workers with low attachment to the labour force and the long-term unemployed. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Inflation targets, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, J, J2, J20
Adoption of Digital Technologies: Insights from a Global Survey Initiative Staff Discussion Paper 2021-7 James Fudurich, Lena Suchanek, Lise Pichette Firms are at the forefront of adopting new technology. Using survey data from a global network of central banks, we assess the effects of digitalization on firms’ pricing and employment decisions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Labour markets JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E3, E31, J, J2, J21, O, O3, O33