Working Time over the 20th Century Staff Working Paper 2006-18 Alexander Ueberfeldt From 1870 to 2000, the workweek length of employed persons decreased by 41 per cent in industrialized countries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E2, E24, O, O1, O11
Benchmark Index of Risk Appetite Staff Working Paper 2006-16 Miroslav Misina Changes in investors' risk appetite have been used to explain a variety of phenomena in asset markets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12
The Welfare Implications of Inflation versus Price-Level Targeting in a Two-Sector, Small Open Economy Staff Working Paper 2006-12 Eva Ortega, Nooman Rebei The authors analyze the welfare implications of simple monetary policy rules in the context of an estimated model of a small open economy for Canada with traded and non-traded goods, and with sticky prices and wages. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Exchange rates, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52
Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model with a Financial Accelerator Staff Working Paper 2006-9 Ian Christensen, Ali Dib The authors estimate a sticky-price dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with a financial accelerator, à la Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist (1999), to assess the importance of financial frictions in the amplification and propagation of the effects of transitory shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37, E4, E44
Forecasting Canadian Time Series with the New Keynesian Model Staff Working Paper 2006-4 Ali Dib, Mohamed Gammoudi, Kevin Moran The authors document the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the New Keynesian model for Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, E, E3, E32, E37
December 2, 2005 From Flapper to Bluestocking: What Happened to the Young Woman of Wellington Street? Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2005-2006 John F. Helliwell Helliwell traces the changes that have occurred at the Bank of Canada since the early 1960s, when he first began a long and extensive relationship with the institution and its staff. He begins with his work on the Royal Commission on Banking and Finance (the Porter Commission) and continues over the next 40 years, giving particular focus to the Bank's analytic and research activities. Although he is careful to note the benefits of alternative analytical and information-gathering techniques, such as the extensive mail and direct interview survey that he and his colleagues conducted as part of the Royal Commission, Helliwell devotes most of his attention to the Bank's econometric modelling efforts, starting with RDX1 and RDX2 in the late 1960s and early 1970s. He cites some of the internal, as well as external, obstacles that had to be overcome as the Bank's modelling efforts advanced, and how shifting trends in the economics profession have sometimes posed a challenge. Helliwell concludes that these developments helped the Bank to come of age and take its place in the front ranks of the world's evidence-based policy-research institutions. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models
Modelling and Forecasting Housing Investment: The Case of Canada Staff Working Paper 2005-41 Frédérick Demers The author proposes and evaluates econometric models that try to explain and forecast real quarterly housing expenditures in Canada. Structural and leading-indicator models of the Canadian housing sector are described. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, R, R2, R21
MUSE: The Bank of Canada's New Projection Model of the U.S. Economy Technical Report No. 96 Marc-André Gosselin, René Lalonde The analysis and forecasting of developments in the U.S. economy have always played a critical role in the formulation of Canadian economic and financial policy. Thus, the Bank places considerable importance on generating internal forecasts of U.S. economic activity as an input to the Canadian projection. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F1, F17
October 18, 2005 What Drives Movements in Exchange Rates? Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2005 Jeannine Bailliu, Michael R. King Understanding what causes the exchange rate to move has been on ongoing challenge for economists. Despite extensive research, traditional macro models of exchange rate determination—with the exception of the Bank of Canada's exchange rate equation—have typically not fared well, motivating economists to explore new ways to model exchange rate movements that incorporate more complex and realistic settings. Within the context of the sharp appreciation of the Canadian dollar in 2003 and 2004, Bailliu and King review the macroeconomic models of exchange rates, as well as the micro-structure studies that highlight the importance of trading mechanisms, information asymmetry, and investor heterogeneity for explaining short-term dynamics in exchange rates. In addition to summarizing the current state of knowledge, they highlight recent advances and identify promising alternative approaches. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Economic models, Exchange rates, Financial markets
Has Exchange Rate Pass-Through Really Declined in Canada? Staff Working Paper 2005-29 Hafedh Bouakez, Nooman Rebei Several empirical studies suggest that exchange rate pass-through has declined in recent years in industrialized countries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F4