Canada's Pioneering Experience with a Flexible Exchange Rate in the 1950s: (Hard) Lessons Learned for Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy Staff Working Paper 2007-45 Michael Bordo, Ali Dib, Lawrence L. Schembri This paper revisits Canada's pioneering experience with floating exchange rate over the period 1950–1962. It examines whether the floating rate was the best option for Canada in the 1950s by developing and estimating a New Keynesian small open economy model of the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37, F, F3, F31, F32, N, N1
Multilateral Adjustment and Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Case of Three Commodity Currencies Staff Working Paper 2007-41 Jeannine Bailliu, Ali Dib, Takashi Kano, Lawrence L. Schembri In this paper, we empirically investigate whether multilateral adjustment to large U.S. external imbalances can help explain movements in the bilateral exchange rates of three commodity currencies – the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand (ACNZ) dollars. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C2, C22, F, F3, F31, F32
A vision for IMF Surveillance Staff Working Paper 2007-37 Robert Lavigne, Philipp Maier, Eric Santor The ongoing review of the IMF, initiated in 2005 by Managing Director De Rato, presents an excellent opportunity to re-examine the role, functions and governance of the Fund. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F33
Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment Staff Working Paper 2007-34 Selim Elekdag, René Lalonde, Douglas Laxton, Dirk Muir, Paolo Pesenti We develop a five-region version (Canada, an oil exporter, the United States, emerging Asia and Japan plus the euro area) of the Global Economy Model (GEM) encompassing production and trade of crude oil, and use it to study the international transmission mechanism of shocks that drive oil prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E6, E66, F, F3, F32, F4, F47
Domestic versus External Borrowing and Fiscal Policy in Emerging Markets Staff Working Paper 2007-33 Garima Vasishtha Domestic public debt issued by emerging markets has risen significantly relative to international debt in recent years. Some recent empirical evidence also suggests that sovereigns have defaulted differentially on debt held by domestic and external creditors. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F30, H, H2, H21, H6, H63
Exchange Rate Regimes, Globalisation, and the Cost of Capital in Emerging Markets Staff Working Paper 2007-29 Antonio Diez de los Rios This paper presents a multifactor asset pricing model for currency, bond, and stock returns for ten emerging markets to investigate the effect of the exchange rate regime on the cost of capital and the integration of emerging financial markets. Since there is evidence that a fixed exchange rate regime reduces the currency risk premia demanded by foreign investors, the tentative conclusion is that a fixed exchange rate regime system can help reduce the cost of capital in emerging markets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Development economics, Exchange rate regimes JEL Code(s): F, F3, F30, F33, G, G1, G15
IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs: Welfare Implications and the Catalytic Effect Staff Working Paper 2007-22 Carlos De Resende The author studies the welfare implications of adjustment programs supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He uses a model where an endogenous borrowing constraint, set up by international lenders who will never lend more than a debt ceiling, forces the borrowing economy to always choose repayment over default. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, F33, F34, F4, F41
A No-Arbitrage Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Term Structures and the Exchange Rate Staff Working Paper 2007-21 Fousseni Chabi-Yo, Jun Yang We study the joint dynamics of macroeconomic variables, bond yields, and the exchange rate in an empirical two-country New-Keynesian model complemented with a no-arbitrage term structure model. With Canadian and US data, we are able to study the impact of macroeconomic shocks from both countries on their yield curves and the exchange rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E4, E43, F, F4, F41, G, G1, G12, G15
World Real Interest Rates: A Global Savings and Investment Perspective Staff Working Paper 2007-16 Brigitte Desroches, Michael Francis Over the past 15 years, long-term interest rates have declined to levels not seen since the 1970s. This paper explores possible shifts in global savings and investment that have led to this fall in the world real interest rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Interest rates, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E4, F, F3
Exporting and FDI with Endogenous Productivity Staff Working Paper 2007-14 Oana Secrieru, Marianne Vigneault This paper provides an analysis of how a firm’s decision to serve a foreign market by exporting or by engaging in foreign direct investment (FDI) affects firm productivity, when productivity is endogeneous as a function of training. The main result of our paper is that, with endogeneous productivity, exporting results in lower productivity than does FDI, but exporting may result in higher or lower employment and output than does FDI. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): F, F2, F22, F23