Alternative Futures for Government of Canada Debt Management Staff Discussion Paper 2018-15 Corey Garriott, Sophie Lefebvre, Guillaume Nolin, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Adrian Walton This paper presents four blue-sky ideas for lowering the cost of the Government of Canada’s debt without increasing the debt’s risk profile. We argue that each idea would improve the secondary-market liquidity of government debt, thereby increasing the demand for government bonds and thus lowering their cost at issuance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Debt management, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G2, G24, H, H6, H63
GDP by Industry in Real Time: Are Revisions Well Behaved? Staff Analytical Note 2018-40 Patrick Rizzetto The monthly data for real gross domestic product (GDP) by industry are used extensively in real time both to ground the Bank of Canada’s monitoring of economic activity and in the Bank’s nowcasting tools, making these data one of the most important high-frequency time series for Canadian nowcasting. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C8, C82, E, E0, E01
December 6, 2018 Year-End Economic Progress Report: Financial Vulnerabilities in Focus Remarks Stephen S. Poloz CFA Toronto Toronto, Ontario Governor Poloz talks about how household debt levels and housing markets played a role in the latest interest-rate decision. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments
December 6, 2018 Governor Poloz speaks on financial vulnerabilities and risks to the economy Speech summary Stephen S. Poloz CFA - Toronto Toronto, Ontario In his final speech of 2018, Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses the vulnerabilities and risks in Canada’s financial system as well as Canadian and global economic developments. He explains how all this was taken into account in the December interest rate decision. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments
The Impact of Surprising Monetary Policy Announcements on Exchange Rate Volatility Staff Analytical Note 2018-39 Adam Albogatchiev, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Jabir Sandhu, Reginald Xie We identify a few Bank of Canada press releases that had the largest immediate impact on the exchange rate market. We find that volatility increases after these releases, but the effect is short-lived and mostly dissipates after the first hour, on average. Beyond the first hour, the size of the effect is similar to what we observe for other economic releases, such as those for inflation or economic growth data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G10, G12, G14, G15