Cross-border Mergers and Hollowing-out Staff Working Paper 2009-30 Oana Secrieru, Marianne Vigneault The purpose of our paper is to examine the profitability and social desirability of both domestic and foreign mergers in a location-quantity competition model, where we allow for the possibility of hollowing-out of the target firm. We refer to hollowing-out as the situation where the target firm is shut down following a merger with a domestic or foreign acquirer. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, International topics, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, D43, G, G3, G34, L, L1, L13, L4, L41
Short Changed? The Market's Reaction to the Short Sale Ban of 2008 Staff Working Paper 2009-23 Louis Gagnon, Jonathan Witmer Do short sales restrictions have an impact on security prices? We address this question in the context of a natural experiment surrounding the short sale ban of 2008 using a comprehensive sample of Canadian stocks cross-listed in the U.S. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F30, G, G0, G01, G1, G18, G2, G20
Strengthening IMF Surveillance: An Assessment of Recent Reforms Staff Discussion Paper 2009-10 Robert Lavigne, Lawrence L. Schembri The authors assess the potential impact of recently approved reforms to International Monetary Fund (IMF) surveillance; namely, the "2007 Decision on Bilateral Surveillance Over Members' Policies" and the "Statement of Surveillance Priorities" (SSP). They conclude that these complementary reforms have the potential to create a comprehensive and coherent framework for IMF surveillance. If implemented properly, […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F33
The Outlook for the Global Supply of Oil: Running on Faith? Staff Discussion Paper 2009-9 Olivier Gervais, Ilan Kolet The dramatic reduction in global demand, and the decline in the spot price of crude oil in the second half of last year, may have significant implications for the future supply of oil. Investments in conventional methods of extraction have been constrained, since easily accessible oil reserves are typically concentrated in countries with geopolitical uncertainty and/or state-run oil companies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): Q, Q4, Q41, Q43
June 11, 2009 BoC-GEM: Modelling the World Economy Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2009 René Lalonde, Dirk Muir BoC-GEM, an adaptation of the Global Economy Model, initially developed at the International Monetary Fund and the New York Federal Reserve, is a very useful tool to tackle a broad range of issues pertinent to the current economic context, such as the recent movements in commodity prices and the adjustment of global imbalances. This article describes the structure and functioning of BoC-GEM and details some examples of recent application in the areas of monetary policy and issues in the real economy and questions of financial stability and describes ongoing research into introducing a financial sector into the model. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Economic models, International topics
Complex Ownership and Capital Structure Staff Working Paper 2009-12 Teodora Paligorova, Zhaoxia Xu This paper investigates the impact of pyramid ownership structure and multiple controlling shareholders on firm leverage. Pyramids, having at least one controlling shareholder and a subsidiary, rely significantly more on debt financing than non-pyramid firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): G, G3, G31, G32
Assessing the Implementation of the IMF's 2007 Surveillance Decision Staff Discussion Paper 2009-6 Robert Lavigne, Garima Vasishtha The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently adopted the "2007 Decision on Bilateral Surveillance Over Members' Policies," a landmark reform that modernizes the general principles of IMF surveillance. However, support for the reform was not unanimous, and doubts have been expressed about how the Decision would be applied in practice. The authors assess the first year […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F33
Are Commodity Prices Useful Leading Indicators of Inflation? Staff Discussion Paper 2009-5 Calista Cheung Commodity prices have increased dramatically and persistently over the past several years, followed by a sharp reversal in recent months. These large and persistent movements in commodity prices raise questions about their implications for global inflation. The process of globalization has motivated much debate over whether global factors have become more important in driving the […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Inflation and prices, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E5, E52, E58
Emerging Asia's Impact on Food and Oil Prices: A Model-Based Analysis Staff Discussion Paper 2009-3 René Lalonde, Philipp Maier, Dirk Muir The authors explore the usefulness of macroeconomic models in analyzing global economic developments by examining movements in commodity prices between July 2007 and July 2008. They use the Bank of Canada's version of the Global Economy Model and investigate the longer-term outlook for commodity prices by constructing two different, globally consistent, scenarios for emerging Asia. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E5, E50, E58, E6, E60
The Impact of Market Timing on Canadian and U.S. Firms' Capital Structure Staff Working Paper 2009-1 Zhaoxia Xu This paper studies the impact of market timing on Canadian firms' capital structure and makes a comparison with U.S. firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): G, G3, G32