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9265 Results

July 24, 2024

Monetary Policy Report – July 2024 – Risks

The Bank sees two broad types of upside risks to the inflation outlook and two main downside risks, though the base-case scenario is considered the mostly likely outcome.
July 24, 2024

Monetary Policy Report—July 2024—Projections

Economic growth in Canada is forecast to improve in the second half of 2024 and strengthen further in 2025 and 2026. Core inflation is expected to ease gradually, while the path of CPI inflation will be bumpy.

Credit Card Minimum Payment Restrictions

Staff Working Paper 2024-26 Jason Allen, Michael Boutros, Benedict Guttman-Kenney
We study a government policy that restricts repayment choices with the aim of reducing credit card debt and estimate its effects by applying a difference-in-differences methodology to comprehensive credit-reporting data about Canadian consumers. We find the policy has trade-offs: reducing revolving debt comes at a cost of reducing credit access, and potentially increasing delinquency.

The reliance of Canadians on credit card debt as a predictor of financial stress

Staff Analytical Note 2024-18 Jia Qi Xiao
I analyze the relationship between carrying a credit card balance and future financial stress. I find that carrying a balance significantly increases the likelihood that credit card holders miss future debt payments. This likelihood tends to rise as credit card balances grow and are held for long periods.

Could all-to-all trading improve liquidity in the Government of Canada bond market?

Staff Analytical Note 2024-17 Jabir Sandhu, Rishi Vala
We find that on any given day, nearly half of Government of Canada bond transactions by clients of dealers can be offset with other clients, including during the turmoil in March 2020. Our results show that under certain conditions clients could potentially trade directly with each other and are a step towards understanding the relevance of broader all-to-all trading in the Government of Canada bond market.
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