Search

Content Types

Research Topics

JEL Codes

Locations

Departments

Authors

Sources

Statuses

Published After

Published Before

542 Results

Should Central Banks Worry About Nonlinearities of their Large-Scale Macroeconomic Models?

Staff Working Paper 2017-21 Vadym Lepetyuk, Lilia Maliar, Serguei Maliar
How wrong could policymakers be when using linearized solutions to their macroeconomic models instead of nonlinear global solutions?

Assessing the Predictive Ability of Sovereign Default Risk on Exchange Rate Returns

Staff Working Paper 2017-19 Claudia Foroni, Francesco Ravazzolo, Barbara Sadaba
Increased sovereign credit risk is often associated with sharp currency movements. Therefore, expectations of the probability of a sovereign default event can convey important information regarding future movements of exchange rates.
May 11, 2017

Why Is Global Business Investment So Weak? Some Insights from Advanced Economies

Various drivers of business investment can be used to explain the underwhelming performance of investment in advanced economies since the global financial crisis, particularly since 2014. The slow growth in aggregate demand cannot by itself explain the full extent of the recent weakness in investment, which appears to be linked primarily to the collapse of global commodity prices and a rise in economic uncertainty. Looking ahead, business investment growth is likely to remain slower than in the pre-crisis period, largely because of structural factors such as population aging.

Markov‐Switching Three‐Pass Regression Filter

We introduce a new approach for the estimation of high-dimensional factor models with regime-switching factor loadings by extending the linear three-pass regression filter to settings where parameters can vary according to Markov processes.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C23, C5, C53

Assessing the Business Outlook Survey Indicator Using Real-Time Data

Staff Discussion Paper 2017-5 Lise Pichette, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille
Every quarter, the Bank of Canada conducts quarterly consultations with businesses across Canada, referred to as the Business Outlook Survey (BOS). A principal-component analysis conducted by Pichette and Rennison (2011) led to the development of the BOS indicator, which summarizes survey results and is used by the Bank as a gauge of overall business sentiment.

The Bank of Canada 2015 Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods: Estimation of the Total Private Cost for Large Businesses

Technical Report No. 110 Valéry Dongmo Jiongo
The Bank of Canada 2015 Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods faced low response rates and outliers in sample data for two of its retailer strata: chains and large independent businesses. This technical report investigates whether it is appropriate to combine these two strata to produce more accurate estimates of the total private cost to large businesses of the main payment methods.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C8, C83

The Bank of Canada 2015 Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods: Calibration for Single-Location Retailers

Technical Report No. 109 Heng Chen, Rallye Shen
Calibrated weights are created to (a) reduce the nonresponse bias; (b) reduce the coverage error; and (c) make the weighted estimates from the sample consistent with the target population in terms of certain key variables.

The Bank of Canada 2015 Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods: Nonresponse

Technical Report No. 107 Stan Hatko
Nonresponse is a considerable challenge in the Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods conducted by the Bank of Canada in 2015. There are two types of nonresponse in this survey: unit nonresponse, in which a business does not reply to the entire survey, and item nonresponse, in which a business does not respond to particular questions within the survey.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Central bank research JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, C83

Small‐Sample Tests for Stock Return Predictability with Possibly Non‐Stationary Regressors and GARCH‐Type Effects

Staff Working Paper 2017-10 Sermin Gungor, Richard Luger
We develop a simulation-based procedure to test for stock return predictability with multiple regressors. The process governing the regressors is left completely free and the test procedure remains valid in small samples even in the presence of non-normalities and GARCH-type effects in the stock returns.
Go To Page