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248 Results

What to Expect When China Liberalizes Its Capital Account

Staff discussion paper 2016-10 Mark Kruger, Gurnain Pasricha
When China joined the World Trade Organization in December 2001, it marked a watershed for the world economy. Ten years from now, the opening of China’s capital account and the financial integration that will unfold will be viewed as a milestone of similar importance.

A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices with an Application to Crude Oil

Staff working paper 2016-18 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian
Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset.

Dating Systemic Financial Stress Episodes in the EU Countries

Staff working paper 2016-11 Benjamin Klaus, Tuomas Peltonen, Thibaut Duprey
This paper introduces a new methodology to date systemic financial stress events in a transparent, objective and reproducible way. The financial cycle is captured by a monthly country-specific financial stress index.

Canadian Repo Market Ecology

Staff discussion paper 2016-8 Corey Garriott, Kyle Gray
This is the first of the Financial Markets Department’s descriptions of Canadian financial industrial organization. The document discusses the organization of the repurchase-agreement (repo) market in Canada.

The Dynamics of Capital Flow Episodes

Staff working paper 2016-9 Christian Friedrich, Pierre Guérin
This paper proposes a novel methodology for identifying episodes of strong capital flows based on a regime-switching model. In comparison with the existing literature, a key advantage of our methodology is to estimate capital flow regimes without the need for context- and sample-specific assumptions.

To Share or Not to Share? Uncovered Losses in a Derivatives Clearinghouse

Staff working paper 2016-4 Radoslav Raykov
This paper studies how the allocation of residual losses affects trading and welfare in a central counterparty. I compare loss sharing under two loss-allocation mechanisms – variation margin haircutting and cash calls – and study the privately and socially optimal degree of loss sharing.

Limits to Arbitrage and Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity

Staff discussion paper 2016-4 James Pinnington, Maral Shamloo
We document an increase in deviations from short-term covered interest rate parity (CIP) in the first half of 2015. Since the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) decision to abandon its minimum exchange rate policy, both the magnitude and volatility of deviations from CIP have increased across several currency pairs. The effect is particularly pronounced for pairs involving the Swiss franc.
November 19, 2015

Recent Enhancements to the Management of Canada’s Foreign Exchange Reserves

As the size and complexity of the foreign exchange reserves have grown over the years, enhancements to the management framework needed to keep pace. This is a common theme for most reserve managers around the world. In Canada, the enhancements focused on governance, portfolio management, risk measurement and risk management. This article briefly describes these enhancements, why they were implemented and some of the lessons learned along the way.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, F, F3, F31, G, G1
June 11, 2015

Assessing Vulnerabilities in the Canadian Financial System

The authors present the four common cyclical vulnerabilities that appear in financial systems, providing examples of qualitative and quantitative indicators used to monitor these vulnerabilities across different sectors. They also discuss other inputs to the vulnerability assessment and to the internal process used at the Bank of Canada for identifying, evaluating and communicating vulnerabilities and risks, and highlight some of the key challenges in assessing financial system vulnerabilities and risks.
Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G10, G2, G20
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