Global Trade Flows: Revisiting the Exchange Rate Elasticities Staff Working Paper 2017-41 Matthieu Bussière, Guillaume Gaulier, Walter Steingress This paper contributes to the debate on the magnitude of exchange rate elasticities by providing a set of price and quantity elasticities for 51 advanced and emerging-market economies. Specifically, for each of these countries we report the elasticity of trade prices and trade quantities on both the export and on the import sides, as well as the reaction of the trade balance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, F, F1, F14, F3, F31, F33, F4, F41
What’s Up with Unit Non-Response in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey? The Effect of Staff Tenure Staff Discussion Paper 2017-11 Sarah Miller, David Amirault, Laurent Martin Since 1997, the Bank of Canada’s regional offices have been conducting the Business Outlook Survey (BOS), a quarterly survey of business conditions. Survey responses are gathered through face-to-face, confidential consultations with a sample of private sector firms representative of the various sectors, firm sizes and regions across Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Firm dynamics, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, C8, C81, D, D2, D22
A Dynamic Factor Model for Commodity Prices Staff Analytical Note 2017-12 Doga Bilgin, Reinhard Ellwanger In this note, we present the Commodities Factor Model (CFM), a dynamic factor model for a large cross-section of energy and non-energy commodity prices. The model decomposes price changes in commodities into a common “global” component, a “block” component confined to subgroups of economically related commodities and an idiosyncratic price shock component. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, Q, Q0, Q02
The MacroFinancial Risk Assessment Framework (MFRAF), Version 2.0 Technical Report No. 111 Jose Fique This report provides a detailed technical description of the updated MacroFinancial Risk Assessment Framework (MFRAF), which replaces the version described in Gauthier, Souissi and Liu (2014) as the Bank of Canada’s stress-testing model for banks with a focus on domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs). Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C7, C72, E, E5, E58, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28
How to Predict Financial Stress? An Assessment of Markov Switching Models Staff Working Paper 2017-32 Benjamin Klaus, Thibaut Duprey This paper predicts phases of the financial cycle by using a continuous financial stress measure in a Markov switching framework. The debt service ratio and property market variables signal a transition to a high financial stress regime, while economic sentiment indicators provide signals for a transition to a tranquil state. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C5, C54, G, G0, G01, G1, G15
Retrieving Implied Financial Networks from Bank Balance-Sheet and Market Data Staff Working Paper 2017-30 Jose Fique In complex and interconnected banking systems, counterparty risk does not depend only on the risk of the immediate counterparty but also on the risk of others in the network of exposures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, D, D8, D85, G, G2, G21
Adoption of a New Payment Method: Theory and Experimental Evidence Staff Working Paper 2017-28 Jasmina Arifovic, John Duffy, Janet Hua Jiang We model the introduction of a new payment method, e.g., e-money, that competes with an existing payment method, e.g., cash. The new payment method involves relatively lower per-transaction costs for both buyers and sellers, but sellers must pay a fixed fee to accept the new payment method. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): C, C3, C35, C8, C83, C9, C92, E, E4, E41
Detecting Scapegoat Effects in the Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals Staff Working Paper 2017-22 Lorenzo Pozzi, Barbara Sadaba This paper presents a new testing method for the scapegoat model of exchange rates that aims to tighten the link between the theory on scapegoats and its empirical implementation. This new testing method consists of a number of steps. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15
A Three‐Frequency Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian Provincial GDP Growth Staff Discussion Paper 2017-8 Tony Chernis, Gabriella Velasco, Calista Cheung This paper estimates a three‐frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian provincial gross domestic product (GDP). Canadian provincial GDP is released by Statistics Canada on an annual basis only, with a significant lag (11 months). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, E37, R, R1, R11
Should Central Banks Worry About Nonlinearities of their Large-Scale Macroeconomic Models? Staff Working Paper 2017-21 Vadym Lepetyuk, Lilia Maliar, Serguei Maliar How wrong could policymakers be when using linearized solutions to their macroeconomic models instead of nonlinear global solutions? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, C63, C68, E, E3, E31, E5, E52