November 19, 2015 Recent Enhancements to the Management of Canada’s Foreign Exchange Reserves Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2015 Mervin Merkowsky, Eric Wolfe As the size and complexity of the foreign exchange reserves have grown over the years, enhancements to the management framework needed to keep pace. This is a common theme for most reserve managers around the world. In Canada, the enhancements focused on governance, portfolio management, risk measurement and risk management. This article briefly describes these enhancements, why they were implemented and some of the lessons learned along the way. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Foreign reserves management, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, F, F3, F31, G, G1
Option Valuation with Observable Volatility and Jump Dynamics Staff Working Paper 2015-39 Peter Christoffersen, Bruno Feunou, Yoontae Jeon Under very general conditions, the total quadratic variation of a jump-diffusion process can be decomposed into diffusive volatility and squared jump variation. We use this result to develop a new option valuation model in which the underlying asset price exhibits volatility and jump intensity dynamics. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12
Domestic and Multilateral Effects of Capital Controls in Emerging Markets Staff Working Paper 2015-37 Gurnain Pasricha, Matteo Falagiarda, Martin Bijsterbosch, Joshua Aizenman Using a novel data set on capital control actions in 17 emerging-market economies (EMEs) over the period 2001–11, we provide new evidence on domestic and multilateral (or spillover) effects of capital controls. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial system regulation and policies, International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, F4, F41, F42, G, G1, G15
Downside Variance Risk Premium Staff Working Paper 2015-36 Bruno Feunou, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Cédric Okou We decompose the variance risk premium into upside and downside variance risk premia. These components reflect market compensation for changes in good and bad uncertainties. Their difference is a measure of the skewness risk premium (SRP), which captures asymmetric views on favorable versus undesirable risks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12
On the Nexus of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Recent Developments and Research Staff Discussion Paper 2015-7 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Miguel Molico, Ben Tomlin Because financial and macroeconomic conditions are tightly interconnected, financial stability considerations are an important element of any monetary policy framework. Yet, the circumstances under which it would be appropriate for the Bank to use monetary policy to lean against financial risks need to be more fully specified (Côté 2014). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E0, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G1, G18
On the Welfare Cost of Rare Housing Disasters Staff Working Paper 2015-26 Shaofeng Xu This paper examines the welfare cost of rare housing disasters characterized by large drops in house prices. I construct an overlapping generations general equilibrium model with recursive preferences and housing disaster shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Economic models, Housing JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E44, G, G1, G11, R, R2, R21
Managerial Compensation Duration and Stock Price Manipulation Staff Working Paper 2015-25 Josef Schroth I build a model of optimal managerial compensation where managers each have a privately observed propensity to manipulate short-term stock prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, G, G1, G14, G3, G30, M, M1, M12
Large-Scale Asset Purchases: Impact on Commodity Prices and International Spillover Effects Staff Working Paper 2015-21 Sharon Kozicki, Lena Suchanek, Eric Santor Prices of commodities, including metals, energy and agricultural products, rose markedly over the 2009–2010 period. Some observers have attributed a significant part of this increase in commodity prices to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) programs. Content Type(s): Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G1, G14, Q, Q0, Q00
June 11, 2015 Assessing Vulnerabilities in the Canadian Financial System Financial System Review - June 2015 Ian Christensen, Gitanjali Kumar, Césaire Meh, Lorie Zorn The authors present the four common cyclical vulnerabilities that appear in financial systems, providing examples of qualitative and quantitative indicators used to monitor these vulnerabilities across different sectors. They also discuss other inputs to the vulnerability assessment and to the internal process used at the Bank of Canada for identifying, evaluating and communicating vulnerabilities and risks, and highlight some of the key challenges in assessing financial system vulnerabilities and risks. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles Topic(s): Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G10, G2, G20
Testing for the Diffusion Matrix in a Continuous-Time Markov Process Model with Applications to the Term Structure of Interest Rates Staff Working Paper 2015-17 Fuchun Li The author proposes a test for the parametric specification of each component in the diffusion matrix of a d-dimensional diffusion process. Overall, d (d-1)/2 test statistics are constructed for the off-diagonal components, while d test statistics are constructed for the main diagonal components. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, E, E1, E17, E4, E43, G, G1, G12, G2, G20