What to Expect When China Liberalizes Its Capital Account Staff Discussion Paper 2016-10 Mark Kruger, Gurnain Pasricha When China joined the World Trade Organization in December 2001, it marked a watershed for the world economy. Ten years from now, the opening of China’s capital account and the financial integration that will unfold will be viewed as a milestone of similar importance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rate regimes, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F32, G, G1, G18
A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices with an Application to Crude Oil Staff Working Paper 2016-18 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, D, D8, D84, G, G1, G14, Q, Q4, Q43
Dating Systemic Financial Stress Episodes in the EU Countries Staff Working Paper 2016-11 Benjamin Klaus, Tuomas Peltonen, Thibaut Duprey This paper introduces a new methodology to date systemic financial stress events in a transparent, objective and reproducible way. The financial cycle is captured by a monthly country-specific financial stress index. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C5, C54, G, G0, G01, G1, G15
Canadian Repo Market Ecology Staff Discussion Paper 2016-8 Corey Garriott, Kyle Gray This is the first of the Financial Markets Department’s descriptions of Canadian financial industrial organization. The document discusses the organization of the repurchase-agreement (repo) market in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G18, G2, G21, G23
The Dynamics of Capital Flow Episodes Staff Working Paper 2016-9 Christian Friedrich, Pierre Guérin This paper proposes a novel methodology for identifying episodes of strong capital flows based on a regime-switching model. In comparison with the existing literature, a key advantage of our methodology is to estimate capital flow regimes without the need for context- and sample-specific assumptions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F3, F32, G, G1, G11
To Share or Not to Share? Uncovered Losses in a Derivatives Clearinghouse Staff Working Paper 2016-4 Radoslav Raykov This paper studies how the allocation of residual losses affects trading and welfare in a central counterparty. I compare loss sharing under two loss-allocation mechanisms – variation margin haircutting and cash calls – and study the privately and socially optimal degree of loss sharing. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G1, G19, G2, G21
Limits to Arbitrage and Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity Staff Discussion Paper 2016-4 James Pinnington, Maral Shamloo We document an increase in deviations from short-term covered interest rate parity (CIP) in the first half of 2015. Since the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) decision to abandon its minimum exchange rate policy, both the magnitude and volatility of deviations from CIP have increased across several currency pairs. The effect is particularly pronounced for pairs involving the Swiss franc. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15
Tractable Term Structure Models Staff Working Paper 2015-46 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Anh Le, Christian Lundblad We introduce a new framework that facilitates term structure modeling with both positive interest rates and flexible time-series dynamics but that is also tractable, meaning amenable to quick and robust estimation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Interest rates, International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12
Speculators, Prices and Market Volatility Staff Working Paper 2015-42 Celso Brunetti, Bahattin Buyuksahin, Jeffrey H. Harris We analyze data from 2005 through 2009 that uniquely identify categories of traders to assess how speculators such as hedge funds and swap dealers relate to volatility and price changes. Examining various subperiods where price trends are strong, we find little evidence that speculators destabilize financial markets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C3, G, G1
November 19, 2015 Recent Enhancements to the Management of Canada’s Foreign Exchange Reserves Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2015 Mervin Merkowsky, Eric Wolfe As the size and complexity of the foreign exchange reserves have grown over the years, enhancements to the management framework needed to keep pace. This is a common theme for most reserve managers around the world. In Canada, the enhancements focused on governance, portfolio management, risk measurement and risk management. This article briefly describes these enhancements, why they were implemented and some of the lessons learned along the way. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Foreign reserves management, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, F, F3, F31, G, G1