Asymmetric Risks to the Economic Outlook Arising from Financial System Vulnerabilities Staff Analytical Note 2018-6 Thibaut Duprey When financial system vulnerabilities are elevated, they can give rise to asymmetric risks to the economic outlook. To illustrate this, I consider the economic outlook presented in the Bank of Canada’s October 2017 Monetary Policy Report in the context of two key financial system vulnerabilities: high levels of household indebtedness and housing market imbalances. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C11, C15, E, E1, E17, E3, E32, E37, E4, E44, E47, E5, E58, E6, E66, G, G0, G01, G1, G18
The Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model Staff Working Paper 2018-11 Stefan Hohberger, Romanos Priftis, Lukas Vogel This paper estimates an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with Bayesian techniques to analyse the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) quantitative easing (QE) programme. Using data on government debt stocks and yields across maturities, we identify the parameter governing portfolio adjustment in the private sector. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, F, F4, F41
How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts? Staff Working Paper 2018-2 Monica Jain, Christopher S. Sutherland We construct a 23-country panel data set to consider the effect of central bank projections and forward guidance on private-sector forecast disagreement. We find that central bank projections and forward guidance matter mainly for private-sector forecast disagreement surrounding upcoming policy rate decisions and matter less for private-sector macroeconomic forecasts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58
Credit Crunches from Occasionally Binding Bank Borrowing Constraints Staff Working Paper 2017-57 Tom D. Holden, Paul Levine, Jonathan Swarbrick We present a model in which banks and other financial intermediaries face both occasionally binding borrowing constraints and costs of equity issuance. Near the steady state, these intermediaries can raise equity finance at no cost through retained earnings. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E32, E5, E51, G, G2
Central Bank Digital Currency: Motivations and Implications Staff Discussion Paper 2017-16 Walter Engert, Ben Fung The emergence of digital currencies such as Bitcoin and the underlying blockchain and distribution ledger technology have attracted significant attention. These developments have raised the possibility of considerable impacts on the financial system and perhaps the wider economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5
The Impacts of Monetary Policy Statements Staff Analytical Note 2017-22 Bruno Feunou, Corey Garriott, James Kyeong, Raisa Leiderman In this note, we find that market participants react to an unexpected change in the tone of Canadian monetary policy statements. When the market perceives that the Bank of Canada plans to tighten (or alternatively, loosen) the monetary policy earlier than previously expected, the Canadian dollar appreciates (or depreciates) and long-term Government of Canada bond yields increase (or decrease). The tone of a statement is particularly relevant to the market when the policy rate has been unchanged for some time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, Interest rates, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12
Evaluating Real GDP Growth Forecasts in the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report Staff Analytical Note 2017-21 André Binette, Dmitri Tchebotarev This paper examines the quality of projections of real GDP growth taken from the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report (MPR) since they were first published in 1997. Over the last decade, it has become common practice among the central banking community to discuss forecast performance publicly. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E32, E37, E5, E52
November 16, 2017 An Update on the Neutral Rate of Interest Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2017 José Dorich, Abeer Reza, Subrata Sarker The neutral rate serves as a benchmark for measuring monetary stimulus and provides a medium- to long-run anchor for the real policy rate. Global neutral rate estimates have been falling over the past few decades. Factors such as population aging, high corporate savings, and low trend productivity growth are likely to continue supporting a low global neutral rate. These global factors as well as domestic factors are exerting downward pres-sure on the Canadian real neutral rate, which is estimated to be between 0.5 to 1.5 per cent. This low neutral rate has important implications for monetary policy and financial stability. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Interest rates, International topics, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, F, F0, F01, F4, F43, O, O4
November 16, 2017 An Initial Assessment of Changes to the Bank of Canada’s Framework for Market Operations Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2017 Kaetlynd McRae, Sean Durr, David Manzo The Bank of Canada made changes to several of the tools that make up its framework for operations and liquidity provision. These changes came about after a comprehensive re-view of the framework and are designed to help the Bank better achieve its objectives of reinforcing the target for the overnight rate and supporting the well-functioning of Cana-dian financial markets under normal market conditions. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G0, G01, G1, G18
Communicating Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Staff Discussion Paper 2017-14 Sharon Kozicki, Jill Vardy While central banks cannot provide complete foresight with respect to their future policy actions, it is in the interests of both central banks and market participants that central banks be transparent about their reaction functions and how they may evolve in response to economic developments, shocks, and risks to their outlooks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Credibility, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E65